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Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records

Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records
Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records
Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. 14C or 10Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40–100 years, and 120–140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation.
1-7
Turner, T.E.
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Swindles, G.T.
dc74185f-8e61-4105-a044-dabab8e9cb09
Charman, D.J.
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Langdon, P.G.
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Morris, P.J.
efc0a494-3d80-4116-8010-c2dd5d1bbdee
Booth, R.K.
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Parry, L.E.
ab93c369-2e82-4d76-aa0a-842eaa77d529
Nichols, J.E.
b61f6fc4-ee04-44fe-ac42-8d30695e75e5
Turner, T.E.
f85e981d-39f6-423d-9a52-ab276f645e4e
Swindles, G.T.
dc74185f-8e61-4105-a044-dabab8e9cb09
Charman, D.J.
9acb79d7-199e-4f48-968e-ae72ed494267
Langdon, P.G.
95b97671-f9fe-4884-aca6-9aa3cd1a6d7f
Morris, P.J.
efc0a494-3d80-4116-8010-c2dd5d1bbdee
Booth, R.K.
c7d887e0-5882-43b0-86f1-fbdc6929eb14
Parry, L.E.
ab93c369-2e82-4d76-aa0a-842eaa77d529
Nichols, J.E.
b61f6fc4-ee04-44fe-ac42-8d30695e75e5

Turner, T.E., Swindles, G.T., Charman, D.J., Langdon, P.G., Morris, P.J., Booth, R.K., Parry, L.E. and Nichols, J.E. (2016) Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records. Scientific Reports, 6, 1-7, [23961]. (doi:10.1038/srep23961).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. 14C or 10Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40–100 years, and 120–140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 16 March 2016
e-pub ahead of print date: 5 April 2016
Published date: 2016
Organisations: Palaeoenvironment Laboratory (PLUS)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 393823
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/393823
PURE UUID: 86c08661-5c51-49c0-8b58-9aca88c29fe1
ORCID for P.G. Langdon: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2724-2643

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 06 May 2016 09:21
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 02:57

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Contributors

Author: T.E. Turner
Author: G.T. Swindles
Author: D.J. Charman
Author: P.G. Langdon ORCID iD
Author: P.J. Morris
Author: R.K. Booth
Author: L.E. Parry
Author: J.E. Nichols

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