Direct and indirect effects of high speed rail

Abstract

This chapter draws on an International Transport Forum Round Table that considered the economics of investment in High Speed Rail (HSR). This Round Table included presentations from China, Chinese Taipei, France, Italy, Korea, India, Japan and UK, along with a summary and conclusions paper (Preston, 2014) . This work has been updated here with respect to recent developments, particularly in the UK, along with a more detailed consideration of the role of wider economic benefits.

In the rest of this introductory section we will briefly define HSR, posit four key classifications and examine the global extent of HSR. In section 2, we will assess the objectives of HSR schemes and their key costs and benefits. We will make a key distinction between direct and indirect effects. We will define direct effects as the traffic impacts of HSR services. We will define indirect effects as the traffic impacts on non-HSR services (air, car, classic rail, coach) as well as the non-traffic impacts, principally related to economic development, but also to environmental and social impacts. In section 3, we will outline the key demand and supply (cost) features of HSR. In section 4, we will examine the balance between costs and benefits and the role of wider economic benefits. In section 5 we will review the recent experience of HS2 in the UK, before drawing some conclusions in section 6.

In defining HSR, we use the definitions of EC Directive 96/48, itself derived from the work of the International Union of Railways (UIC) (CEC, 1996). HSR services are thus those operating on dedicated new lines capable of operating speeds of 250 kph or more or on upgraded existing lines capable of speeds of 200 kph or more. However, the work of Campos et al. (2009) indicates that there are four broad types of HSR, as illustrated by Figure 4.1, each of which might be expected to have a different mix of direct and indirect effects.

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ORCID for John Preston: orcid.org/0000-0002-6866-049X

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