Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine
Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine
Summary: A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk.
Introduction: FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine.
Methods: The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512).
Results: The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture.
Conclusion: The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.
Povoroznyuk, V.V.
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Grygorieva, N.V.
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Kanis, J.A.
14988b3e-d76f-44fd-ab3b-7739bd4de6db
McCloskey, E.V.
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Johansson, H.
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Harvey, N.C.
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Korzh, M.O.
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Strafun, S.S.
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Vaida, V.M.
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Klymovytsky, F.V.
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Vlasenko, R.O.
19793293-d210-4fb8-865e-140648c47362
Forosenko, V.S.
462d3dee-223f-49d5-895b-04610d3f22a1
December 2017
Povoroznyuk, V.V.
9b043d24-b551-4d1f-9254-182ec8e1adab
Grygorieva, N.V.
c9447c13-c2a6-460d-baf9-231c65669926
Kanis, J.A.
14988b3e-d76f-44fd-ab3b-7739bd4de6db
McCloskey, E.V.
6d3df4aa-b438-4a83-bd06-06b6cbe3980f
Johansson, H.
05aa5476-bcb9-4b97-905e-00f1dfd9d691
Harvey, N.C.
ce487fb4-d360-4aac-9d17-9466d6cba145
Korzh, M.O.
2dc323b1-3bff-4a79-8cb9-dd3d9463a5c0
Strafun, S.S.
68756a5f-f6ac-4902-a693-ca9a2f3b08a0
Vaida, V.M.
8d02e74c-0014-4f73-beb6-43bfc87c406c
Klymovytsky, F.V.
a06a5bf9-9237-488b-a99e-7509bfbf0443
Vlasenko, R.O.
19793293-d210-4fb8-865e-140648c47362
Forosenko, V.S.
462d3dee-223f-49d5-895b-04610d3f22a1
Povoroznyuk, V.V., Grygorieva, N.V., Kanis, J.A., McCloskey, E.V., Johansson, H., Harvey, N.C., Korzh, M.O., Strafun, S.S., Vaida, V.M., Klymovytsky, F.V., Vlasenko, R.O. and Forosenko, V.S.
(2017)
Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine.
Archives of Osteoporosis, 12, [53].
(doi:10.1007/s11657-017-0343-2).
Abstract
Summary: A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk.
Introduction: FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine.
Methods: The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512).
Results: The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture.
Conclusion: The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.
Text
Ukraine FRAX v4
- Accepted Manuscript
Text
art_10.1007_s11657-017-0343-2
- Version of Record
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Accepted/In Press date: 28 April 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 31 May 2017
Published date: December 2017
Organisations:
Human Development & Health
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Local EPrints ID: 411417
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/411417
ISSN: 1862-3522
PURE UUID: 63e27a92-d582-4448-b099-809e77d130b8
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Date deposited: 20 Jun 2017 16:31
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 05:27
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Contributors
Author:
V.V. Povoroznyuk
Author:
N.V. Grygorieva
Author:
J.A. Kanis
Author:
E.V. McCloskey
Author:
H. Johansson
Author:
M.O. Korzh
Author:
S.S. Strafun
Author:
V.M. Vaida
Author:
F.V. Klymovytsky
Author:
R.O. Vlasenko
Author:
V.S. Forosenko
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