An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change
An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change
Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic dataset and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.
Chiroptera, conservation genomics, Genotype-Environment Associations, Global Change, Landscape genetics, range shift
18-31
Razgour, Orly
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Taggart, John
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Manel, Stephanie
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Juste, Javier
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Ibáñez, Carlos
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Rebelo, Hugo
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Alberdi, Antton
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Jones, Gareth
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Park, Kirsty
6216e5a3-44f8-40cc-a30e-cc7a03713089
2018
Razgour, Orly
107f4912-304a-44d5-99f8-cdf2a9ce6f14
Taggart, John
38e3f081-fef1-4b2e-b9a3-8e74079f6de4
Manel, Stephanie
5b5de36c-aeea-4ff2-8d3b-a91d2aab24b2
Juste, Javier
d44bbd1c-ec75-43f4-87e6-214729740e0e
Ibáñez, Carlos
720fc66b-56ca-469e-90cb-dacef91483e3
Rebelo, Hugo
81a4b2cf-7d26-4a69-974f-ea0854c33b0d
Alberdi, Antton
9811e238-964e-48e6-8bfb-b0a9d08a3f4a
Jones, Gareth
0a6ac21d-b3cd-4aa9-b316-5ffd861e3c5a
Park, Kirsty
6216e5a3-44f8-40cc-a30e-cc7a03713089
Razgour, Orly, Taggart, John, Manel, Stephanie, Juste, Javier, Ibáñez, Carlos, Rebelo, Hugo, Alberdi, Antton, Jones, Gareth and Park, Kirsty
(2018)
An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change.
Molecular Ecology Resources, 18 (1), .
(doi:10.1111/1755-0998.12694).
Abstract
Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic dataset and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.
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Razgour et al 2018 Molecular Ecology Resources
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Accepted/In Press date: 16 June 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 25 July 2017
Published date: 2018
Keywords:
Chiroptera, conservation genomics, Genotype-Environment Associations, Global Change, Landscape genetics, range shift
Organisations:
Environmental
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 411719
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/411719
ISSN: 1755-098X
PURE UUID: c9a81d13-bb3c-4982-9884-b953a3cb94a2
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Date deposited: 22 Jun 2017 16:31
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 05:28
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Contributors
Author:
Orly Razgour
Author:
John Taggart
Author:
Stephanie Manel
Author:
Javier Juste
Author:
Carlos Ibáñez
Author:
Hugo Rebelo
Author:
Antton Alberdi
Author:
Gareth Jones
Author:
Kirsty Park
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