How far is a long distance? An assessment of the issue of scale in the relationship between limiting long term illness and long distance migration in England and Wales

Abstract

Research consistently shows that those in poor health are less likely to migrate over long distances, but analyses rarely consider what constitutes a long distance in this context. Additionally, the migration literature often fails to account for place of residence effects on migration behaviour. This paper addresses these issues through analysis on the distance of residential moves by working age adults in the year preceding the 2011 Census. Multilevel logistic regression models predict the odds of having moved long distance relative to short distance, for different definitions of long distance: 10km+, 20km+ and 50km+. We test whether those reporting a Limiting Long Term Illness (LLTI) are less likely to move long distance in all models, controlling for local authority at the time of the 2011 Census. We find no evidence for health-selectivity in long distance migration in the 10 and 20km models, but uncover a significant effect in the 50km model. By age, the odds of having moved long distance do not vary for middle-working age adults (25-54) by LLTI, whilst those with an LLTI in the pre-retirement age group (55-64) are less likely to move long distance in all models. We uncover clusters of local authorities where those with an LLTI are more likely to have moved long distance in the 10km and 20km models, but in the 50km model only two of these areas remain significantly positive. We conclude that health selection in distances moved occurs above a cut-off somewhere between 20km and 50km.

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Identifiers

ORCID for David Martin: orcid.org/0000-0003-0397-0769

ORCID for Graham Moon: orcid.org/0000-0002-7256-8397

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