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Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the UK ACSIS programme

Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the UK ACSIS programme
Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the UK ACSIS programme
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is a key feature of Atlantic and global climate. The ACSIS program involves a unique grouping that will advance an integrated understanding of AMV.

Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) is the term used to describe the pattern of variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that is characterised by decades of basin-wide warm or cool anomalies, relative to the global mean. AMV has been associated with numerous climate impacts in many regions of the world including decadal variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, hurricane activity, and sea-level changes. Given its importance, understanding the physical processes that drive AMV and the extent to which its evolution is predictable is a key challenge in climate science. A leading hypothesis is that natural variations in ocean circulation control changes in ocean heat content and, consequently, AMV phases. However, this view has been challenged recently by claims that changing natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings are critical drivers of AMV. Others have argued that changes in ocean circulation are not required. Here we review the leading hypotheses and mechanisms for AMV, and discuss the key debates. In particular, we highlight the need for a holistic understanding of AMV. This perspective is a key motivation for a major new UK research programme: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS), which brings together seven of the UK’s leading environmental research institutes to enable a broad spectrum approach to the challenges of AMV. ACSIS will deliver the first fully integrated assessment of recent decadal changes in the North Atlantic, will investigate the attribution of these changes to their proximal and ultimate causes, and will assess the potential to predict future changes.
0003-0007
415-425
Sutton, R.T.
547c7ce1-987b-4cfd-a46d-f0b854d5a568
Mccarthy, G.D.
fd87927d-feb3-447a-9cda-9558916df99f
Robson, J.
43500b5e-3774-4c38-8a5d-47c2f73b127c
Sinha, B.
544b5a07-3d74-464b-9470-a68c69bd722e
Archibald, A.
b8d10d05-e5bf-4bb1-8ccf-a2068059398f
Gray, L.J.
72b56bfe-37c1-43d5-a320-7b54fea66478
Sutton, R.T.
547c7ce1-987b-4cfd-a46d-f0b854d5a568
Mccarthy, G.D.
fd87927d-feb3-447a-9cda-9558916df99f
Robson, J.
43500b5e-3774-4c38-8a5d-47c2f73b127c
Sinha, B.
544b5a07-3d74-464b-9470-a68c69bd722e
Archibald, A.
b8d10d05-e5bf-4bb1-8ccf-a2068059398f
Gray, L.J.
72b56bfe-37c1-43d5-a320-7b54fea66478

Sutton, R.T., Mccarthy, G.D., Robson, J., Sinha, B., Archibald, A. and Gray, L.J. (2018) Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the UK ACSIS programme. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (2), 415-425. (doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is a key feature of Atlantic and global climate. The ACSIS program involves a unique grouping that will advance an integrated understanding of AMV.

Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) is the term used to describe the pattern of variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that is characterised by decades of basin-wide warm or cool anomalies, relative to the global mean. AMV has been associated with numerous climate impacts in many regions of the world including decadal variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, hurricane activity, and sea-level changes. Given its importance, understanding the physical processes that drive AMV and the extent to which its evolution is predictable is a key challenge in climate science. A leading hypothesis is that natural variations in ocean circulation control changes in ocean heat content and, consequently, AMV phases. However, this view has been challenged recently by claims that changing natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings are critical drivers of AMV. Others have argued that changes in ocean circulation are not required. Here we review the leading hypotheses and mechanisms for AMV, and discuss the key debates. In particular, we highlight the need for a holistic understanding of AMV. This perspective is a key motivation for a major new UK research programme: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS), which brings together seven of the UK’s leading environmental research institutes to enable a broad spectrum approach to the challenges of AMV. ACSIS will deliver the first fully integrated assessment of recent decadal changes in the North Atlantic, will investigate the attribution of these changes to their proximal and ultimate causes, and will assess the potential to predict future changes.

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AMV-ACSIS-BAMS-paper-draft_V2.0 - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 12 July 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 12 July 2017
Published date: February 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 412561
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/412561
ISSN: 0003-0007
PURE UUID: a62edea7-ff97-47bc-95aa-df651371635c

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Date deposited: 21 Jul 2017 16:31
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 15:22

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Contributors

Author: R.T. Sutton
Author: G.D. Mccarthy
Author: J. Robson
Author: B. Sinha
Author: A. Archibald
Author: L.J. Gray

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