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Changing geographic patterns and risk factors for avian influenza A(H7N9) infections in humans, China

Changing geographic patterns and risk factors for avian influenza A(H7N9) infections in humans, China
Changing geographic patterns and risk factors for avian influenza A(H7N9) infections in humans, China

The fifth epidemic wave of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China during 2016-2017 demonstrated a geographic range expansion and caused more human cases than any previous wave. The factors that may explain the recent range expansion and surge in incidence remain unknown. We investigated the effect of anthropogenic, poultry, and wetland variables on all epidemic waves. Poultry predictor variables became much more important in the last 2 epidemic waves than they were previously, supporting the assumption of much wider H7N9 transmission in the chicken reservoir. We show that the future range expansion of H7N9 to northern China may increase the risk of H7N9 epidemic peaks coinciding in time and space with those of seasonal influenza, leading to a higher risk of reassortments than before, although the risk is still low so far.

Journal Article
1080-6059
87-94
Artois, Jean
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Jiang, Hui
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Wang, Xiling
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Qin, Ying
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Pearcy, Morgan
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Lai, Shengjie
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Shi, Yujing
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Zhang, Juanjuan
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Peng, Zhibin
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Zheng, Jiandong
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He, Yangni
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Dhingra, Madhur S.
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von Dobschuetz, Sophie
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Guo, Fusheng
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Martin, Vincent
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Kalpravidh, Wantanee
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Claes, Filip
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Robinson, Timothy
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Hay, Simon I.
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Xiao, Xiangming
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Feng, Luzhao
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Gilbert, Marius
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Yu, Hongjie
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Artois, Jean
3343be37-bdde-44cd-b5bd-d9be5b483b1f
Jiang, Hui
fecd6868-9358-49c6-99a6-e6dbc9cf9f3e
Wang, Xiling
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Qin, Ying
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Pearcy, Morgan
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Lai, Shengjie
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Shi, Yujing
cb8b0776-537b-4839-9015-1b7d86eadc12
Zhang, Juanjuan
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Peng, Zhibin
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Zheng, Jiandong
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He, Yangni
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Dhingra, Madhur S.
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von Dobschuetz, Sophie
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Guo, Fusheng
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Martin, Vincent
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Kalpravidh, Wantanee
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Claes, Filip
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Robinson, Timothy
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Hay, Simon I.
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Xiao, Xiangming
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Feng, Luzhao
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Gilbert, Marius
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Yu, Hongjie
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Artois, Jean, Jiang, Hui, Wang, Xiling, Qin, Ying, Pearcy, Morgan, Lai, Shengjie, Shi, Yujing, Zhang, Juanjuan, Peng, Zhibin, Zheng, Jiandong, He, Yangni, Dhingra, Madhur S., von Dobschuetz, Sophie, Guo, Fusheng, Martin, Vincent, Kalpravidh, Wantanee, Claes, Filip, Robinson, Timothy, Hay, Simon I., Xiao, Xiangming, Feng, Luzhao, Gilbert, Marius and Yu, Hongjie (2018) Changing geographic patterns and risk factors for avian influenza A(H7N9) infections in humans, China. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 24 (1), 87-94. (doi:10.3201/eid2401.171393).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The fifth epidemic wave of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China during 2016-2017 demonstrated a geographic range expansion and caused more human cases than any previous wave. The factors that may explain the recent range expansion and surge in incidence remain unknown. We investigated the effect of anthropogenic, poultry, and wetland variables on all epidemic waves. Poultry predictor variables became much more important in the last 2 epidemic waves than they were previously, supporting the assumption of much wider H7N9 transmission in the chicken reservoir. We show that the future range expansion of H7N9 to northern China may increase the risk of H7N9 epidemic peaks coinciding in time and space with those of seasonal influenza, leading to a higher risk of reassortments than before, although the risk is still low so far.

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Accepted/In Press date: 19 December 2017
Published date: 4 January 2018
Keywords: Journal Article

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 416777
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/416777
ISSN: 1080-6059
PURE UUID: 669df100-1c22-4e29-b5bf-6f687ac1b084

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Date deposited: 10 Jan 2018 17:30
Last modified: 19 Apr 2018 16:31

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Contributors

Author: Jean Artois
Author: Hui Jiang
Author: Xiling Wang
Author: Ying Qin
Author: Morgan Pearcy
Author: Shengjie Lai
Author: Yujing Shi
Author: Juanjuan Zhang
Author: Zhibin Peng
Author: Jiandong Zheng
Author: Yangni He
Author: Madhur S. Dhingra
Author: Sophie von Dobschuetz
Author: Fusheng Guo
Author: Vincent Martin
Author: Wantanee Kalpravidh
Author: Filip Claes
Author: Timothy Robinson
Author: Simon I. Hay
Author: Xiangming Xiao
Author: Luzhao Feng
Author: Marius Gilbert
Author: Hongjie Yu

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