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Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales

Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales
Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales
This paper presents preliminary results from the development of IMPETUS model, a domestic water demand microsimulation model which was developed to estimate the results of a range of scenarios of domestic demand under drought conditions. The model is intended to enable water resource management practitioners to assess the likely impact of potential interventions in particular catchment areas. It has been designed to be driven by seasonal catchment level forecasts of potential hydrological droughts based on innovative climate and groundwater models. The current version of the model is driven by reconstructed historical drought data for the Colne catchment in the East of England from 1995 to 2014. This provides a framework of five drought phases (Normal, Developing, Drought, Severe and Recovering) which are mapped to policy driven interventions such as increased provision of water efficiency technologies and temporary water-use bans. The model uses UK Census 2011 data to develop a synthetic household population that matches the socio-demographics of the catchment and it microsimulates (at the household level) the consequences of water efficiency interventions retrospectively (1995-2014). Demand estimates for reconstructed drought histories demonstrate that the model is able to adequately estimate end-use water consumption. Also, the potential value of the model in supporting cost-benefit analysis of specific interventions is illustrated. We conclude by discussing future directions for the work.
Climate change, Domestic water demand, Microsimulation , Drought, IMPETUS
0273-1223
Anderson, Ben
01e98bbd-b402-48b0-b83e-142341a39b2d
Manouseli, Despoina
e6c46dbb-864f-499e-b416-6ce4b907fd1f
Nagarajan, Magesh
abb55302-2d3e-4d39-8a77-5bf62da800dc
Anderson, Ben
01e98bbd-b402-48b0-b83e-142341a39b2d
Manouseli, Despoina
e6c46dbb-864f-499e-b416-6ce4b907fd1f
Nagarajan, Magesh
abb55302-2d3e-4d39-8a77-5bf62da800dc

Anderson, Ben, Manouseli, Despoina and Nagarajan, Magesh (2018) Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales. Water Science & Technology. (doi:10.2166/ws.2018.035).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper presents preliminary results from the development of IMPETUS model, a domestic water demand microsimulation model which was developed to estimate the results of a range of scenarios of domestic demand under drought conditions. The model is intended to enable water resource management practitioners to assess the likely impact of potential interventions in particular catchment areas. It has been designed to be driven by seasonal catchment level forecasts of potential hydrological droughts based on innovative climate and groundwater models. The current version of the model is driven by reconstructed historical drought data for the Colne catchment in the East of England from 1995 to 2014. This provides a framework of five drought phases (Normal, Developing, Drought, Severe and Recovering) which are mapped to policy driven interventions such as increased provision of water efficiency technologies and temporary water-use bans. The model uses UK Census 2011 data to develop a synthetic household population that matches the socio-demographics of the catchment and it microsimulates (at the household level) the consequences of water efficiency interventions retrospectively (1995-2014). Demand estimates for reconstructed drought histories demonstrate that the model is able to adequately estimate end-use water consumption. Also, the potential value of the model in supporting cost-benefit analysis of specific interventions is illustrated. We conclude by discussing future directions for the work.

Text Anderson_et_al_2017_Estimating_Scenarios_Final - Accepted Manuscript
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 14 December 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 13 February 2018
Keywords: Climate change, Domestic water demand, Microsimulation , Drought, IMPETUS

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 417931
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/417931
ISSN: 0273-1223
PURE UUID: d76c7e0e-31ec-44c5-b5e1-d639368f640c
ORCID for Ben Anderson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2092-4406

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Date deposited: 16 Feb 2018 17:31
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:25

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Author: Ben Anderson ORCID iD
Author: Despoina Manouseli
Author: Magesh Nagarajan

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