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A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas

A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas
A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas

Deltas are precarious environments experiencing significant biophysical, and socio-economic changes with the ebb and flow of seasons (including with floods and drought), with infrastructural developments (such as dikes and polders), with the movement of people, and as a result of climate and environmental variability and change. Decisions are being taken about the future of deltas and about the provision of adaptation investment to enable people and the environment to respond to the changing climate and related changes. The paper presents a framework to identify options for, and trade-offs between, long term adaptation strategies in deltas. Using a three step process, we: (1) identify current policy-led adaptations actions in deltas by conducting literature searches on current observable adaptations, potential transformational adaptations and government policy; (2) develop narratives of future adaptation policy directions that take into account investment cost of adaptation and the extent to which significant policy change/political effort is required; and (3) explore trade-offs that occur within each policy direction using a subjective weighting process developed during a collaborative expert workshop. We conclude that the process of developing policy directions for adaptation can assist policy makers in scoping the spectrum of options that exist, while enabling them to consider their own willingness to make significant policy changes within the delta and to initiate transformative change.

Adaptation, Climate change, Deltas, Framework, Policy, Transformation
0048-9697
946-957
Suckall, Natalie
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Tompkins, Emma L.
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Nicholls, Robert J.
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Kebede, Abiy S.
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Lázár, Attila N.
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Hutton, Craig
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Vincent, Katharine
9903417e-ad11-4d5b-b46c-14b7ef2a34d2
Allan, Andrew
d167b4a4-7c6d-4598-a200-7e9b94b9e41d
Chapman, Alex
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Rahman, Rezaur
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Ghosh, Tuhin
d660c7d5-91ab-4b2d-821f-140ea145d547
Mensah, Adelina
fca35d21-67bf-4ba0-b289-2a32b6758c9e
Suckall, Natalie
6403cd8a-dab8-4fed-9136-ab293700d4fe
Tompkins, Emma L.
a6116704-7140-4e37-bea1-2cbf39b138c3
Nicholls, Robert J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Kebede, Abiy S.
7370b5e9-5447-48bd-80e5-fe7b14e4a857
Lázár, Attila N.
d7f835e7-1e3d-4742-b366-af19cf5fc881
Hutton, Craig
9102617b-caf7-4538-9414-c29e72f5fe2e
Vincent, Katharine
9903417e-ad11-4d5b-b46c-14b7ef2a34d2
Allan, Andrew
d167b4a4-7c6d-4598-a200-7e9b94b9e41d
Chapman, Alex
83223587-efda-4b65-aa67-e4756330b148
Rahman, Rezaur
6c00a6ed-e5e9-48a0-9118-fbadcd191fd2
Ghosh, Tuhin
d660c7d5-91ab-4b2d-821f-140ea145d547
Mensah, Adelina
fca35d21-67bf-4ba0-b289-2a32b6758c9e

Suckall, Natalie, Tompkins, Emma L., Nicholls, Robert J., Kebede, Abiy S., Lázár, Attila N., Hutton, Craig, Vincent, Katharine, Allan, Andrew, Chapman, Alex, Rahman, Rezaur, Ghosh, Tuhin and Mensah, Adelina (2018) A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas. Science of the Total Environment, 633, 946-957. (doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.234).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Deltas are precarious environments experiencing significant biophysical, and socio-economic changes with the ebb and flow of seasons (including with floods and drought), with infrastructural developments (such as dikes and polders), with the movement of people, and as a result of climate and environmental variability and change. Decisions are being taken about the future of deltas and about the provision of adaptation investment to enable people and the environment to respond to the changing climate and related changes. The paper presents a framework to identify options for, and trade-offs between, long term adaptation strategies in deltas. Using a three step process, we: (1) identify current policy-led adaptations actions in deltas by conducting literature searches on current observable adaptations, potential transformational adaptations and government policy; (2) develop narratives of future adaptation policy directions that take into account investment cost of adaptation and the extent to which significant policy change/political effort is required; and (3) explore trade-offs that occur within each policy direction using a subjective weighting process developed during a collaborative expert workshop. We conclude that the process of developing policy directions for adaptation can assist policy makers in scoping the spectrum of options that exist, while enabling them to consider their own willingness to make significant policy changes within the delta and to initiate transformative change.

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Suckall et al - Manuscript Revised - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 20 March 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 28 March 2018
Published date: 15 August 2018
Keywords: Adaptation, Climate change, Deltas, Framework, Policy, Transformation

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 419960
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/419960
ISSN: 0048-9697
PURE UUID: 1ef99269-93ff-467c-bc54-fe1033d14f23
ORCID for Robert J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109
ORCID for Attila N. Lázár: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2033-2013
ORCID for Craig Hutton: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5896-756X

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Date deposited: 24 Apr 2018 16:30
Last modified: 28 Mar 2020 05:01

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Contributors

Author: Natalie Suckall
Author: Abiy S. Kebede
Author: Attila N. Lázár ORCID iD
Author: Craig Hutton ORCID iD
Author: Katharine Vincent
Author: Andrew Allan
Author: Alex Chapman
Author: Rezaur Rahman
Author: Tuhin Ghosh
Author: Adelina Mensah

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