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Coherent modulation of the sea-level annual cycle in the United States by Atlantic Rossby waves

Coherent modulation of the sea-level annual cycle in the United States by Atlantic Rossby waves
Coherent modulation of the sea-level annual cycle in the United States by Atlantic Rossby waves
Changes in the sea-level annual cycle (SLAC) can have profound impacts on coastal areas, including increased flooding risk and ecosystem alteration, yet little is known about the magnitude and drivers of such changes. Here we show, using novel Bayesian methods, that there are significant decadal fluctuations in the amplitude of the SLAC along the United States Gulf and Southeast coasts, including an extreme event in 2008–2009 that is likely (probability ≥68%) unprecedented in the tide-gauge record. Such fluctuations are coherent along the coast but decoupled from deep-ocean changes. Through the use of numerical and analytical ocean models, we show that the primary driver of these fluctuations involves incident Rossby waves that generate fast western-boundary waves. These Rossby waves project onto the basin-wide upper mid-ocean transport (top 1000 m) leading to a link with the SLAC, wherein larger SLAC amplitudes coincide with enhanced transport variability.
1-13
Calafat, Francisco M.
f97617bd-0238-48e6-b693-7d409ac30c47
Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Lindsten, Fredrik
007c9c48-6e91-4efb-9982-80848681a298
Williams, Joanne
39447123-69ab-40ce-9815-7fea3e98d597
Frajka-williams, Eleanor
da86044e-0f68-4cc9-8f60-7fdbc4dc19cb
Calafat, Francisco M.
f97617bd-0238-48e6-b693-7d409ac30c47
Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Lindsten, Fredrik
007c9c48-6e91-4efb-9982-80848681a298
Williams, Joanne
39447123-69ab-40ce-9815-7fea3e98d597
Frajka-williams, Eleanor
da86044e-0f68-4cc9-8f60-7fdbc4dc19cb

Calafat, Francisco M., Wahl, Thomas, Lindsten, Fredrik, Williams, Joanne and Frajka-williams, Eleanor (2018) Coherent modulation of the sea-level annual cycle in the United States by Atlantic Rossby waves. Nature Communications, 9 (1), 1-13. (doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04898-y).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Changes in the sea-level annual cycle (SLAC) can have profound impacts on coastal areas, including increased flooding risk and ecosystem alteration, yet little is known about the magnitude and drivers of such changes. Here we show, using novel Bayesian methods, that there are significant decadal fluctuations in the amplitude of the SLAC along the United States Gulf and Southeast coasts, including an extreme event in 2008–2009 that is likely (probability ≥68%) unprecedented in the tide-gauge record. Such fluctuations are coherent along the coast but decoupled from deep-ocean changes. Through the use of numerical and analytical ocean models, we show that the primary driver of these fluctuations involves incident Rossby waves that generate fast western-boundary waves. These Rossby waves project onto the basin-wide upper mid-ocean transport (top 1000 m) leading to a link with the SLAC, wherein larger SLAC amplitudes coincide with enhanced transport variability.

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s41467-018-04898-y - Version of Record
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 22 May 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 3 July 2018
Published date: 1 December 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 422069
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/422069
PURE UUID: d8bdbbf3-d446-41b9-9f1f-70da5b4229dd
ORCID for Eleanor Frajka-williams: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-8773-7838

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Date deposited: 16 Jul 2018 16:30
Last modified: 14 Mar 2019 01:38

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