Assessing the presence of discontinuities in the ocean color satellite record and their effects on chlorophyll trends and their uncertainties

Abstract

Ocean color sensors are crucial for understanding global phytoplankton dynamics. However, the limited life spans of sensors make multisensor data sets necessary for estimating long-term trends. Discontinuities may be introduced when merging data between sensors, potentially affecting trend estimates and their uncertainties. We use a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to investigate the presence of discontinuities and their impacts on estimated chlorophyll trends. The discontinuities considered are the introduction of Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Aqua, and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite and the termination of Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor. Discontinuities are detected in ~70% of regions, affecting trend estimates (~60% of regions have statistically different trends) and potentially even biasing trend estimates (opposite sign in ~13% of regions). Considering a single discontinuity increases trend uncertainty by an average of 0.20%/year (0.59%/year for two discontinuities). This difference in trend magnitude and uncertainty highlights the importance of minimizing discontinuities in multisensor records and taking into account discontinuities when analyzing trends.

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