A differential algebra-based importance sampling method for impact probability computation on Earth resonant returns of near-Earth objects
A differential algebra-based importance sampling method for impact probability computation on Earth resonant returns of near-Earth objects
A differential algebra-based importance sampling method for uncertainty propagation and impact probability computation on the first resonant returns of near-Earth objects is presented in this paper. Starting from the results of an orbit determination process, we use a differential algebra-based automatic domain pruning to estimate resonances and automatically propagate in time the regions of the initial uncertainty set that include the resonant return of interest. The result is a list of polynomial state vectors, each mapping specific regions of the uncertainty set from the observation epoch to the resonant return. Then, we employ a Monte Carlo importance sampling technique on the enerated subsets for impact probability computation. We assess the performance of the proposed approach on the case of asteroid (99942) Apophis. A sensitivity analysis on the main parameters of the technique is carried out, providing guidelines for their selection. We finally compare the results of the proposed method to standard and advanced orbital sampling techniques.
5474-5490
Losacco, Matteo
4a892d48-fc2b-45e7-a40a-b92315f3f1aa
Di Lizia, Pierluigi
f86916ba-a73b-42a9-8247-558335c21f22
Armellin, Roberto
281fb90d-36c1-47a9-b793-f8b5530f5b4d
Wittig, Alexander
3a140128-b118-4b8c-9856-a0d4f390b201
October 2018
Losacco, Matteo
4a892d48-fc2b-45e7-a40a-b92315f3f1aa
Di Lizia, Pierluigi
f86916ba-a73b-42a9-8247-558335c21f22
Armellin, Roberto
281fb90d-36c1-47a9-b793-f8b5530f5b4d
Wittig, Alexander
3a140128-b118-4b8c-9856-a0d4f390b201
Losacco, Matteo, Di Lizia, Pierluigi, Armellin, Roberto and Wittig, Alexander
(2018)
A differential algebra-based importance sampling method for impact probability computation on Earth resonant returns of near-Earth objects.
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 479 (4), .
(doi:10.1093/mnras/sty1832).
Abstract
A differential algebra-based importance sampling method for uncertainty propagation and impact probability computation on the first resonant returns of near-Earth objects is presented in this paper. Starting from the results of an orbit determination process, we use a differential algebra-based automatic domain pruning to estimate resonances and automatically propagate in time the regions of the initial uncertainty set that include the resonant return of interest. The result is a list of polynomial state vectors, each mapping specific regions of the uncertainty set from the observation epoch to the resonant return. Then, we employ a Monte Carlo importance sampling technique on the enerated subsets for impact probability computation. We assess the performance of the proposed approach on the case of asteroid (99942) Apophis. A sensitivity analysis on the main parameters of the technique is carried out, providing guidelines for their selection. We finally compare the results of the proposed method to standard and advanced orbital sampling techniques.
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differential algebra based importance sampling method for impact
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Accepted/In Press date: 7 July 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 14 July 2018
Published date: October 2018
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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
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Local EPrints ID: 423790
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/423790
ISSN: 1365-2966
PURE UUID: eca0d08f-8eb3-4b97-93cd-02ecb9217bb2
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Date deposited: 01 Oct 2018 16:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:30
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Author:
Matteo Losacco
Author:
Pierluigi Di Lizia
Author:
Roberto Armellin
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