Structural loop analysis of complex ecological systems

Abstract

Ecosystems are complex and dynamic making them challenging to understand. We urgently need to assess human impacts on ecosystems which cause changes in structural feedbacks producing large, hard to reverse changes in state and functioning. System dynamics has proven to be a useful and versatile methodology for modelling complex systems given the comparative ease with which feedback loops can be modelled. However, a common issue arises when models become too large and structurally complex to understand the causal drivers of system behaviour. There is a need for an intermediate level of analysis capable of identifying causal driving structures and dynamics, regardless of model complexity. This study investigates Loop Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis, a structural analysis technique commonly used in business and economic system dynamics models, and evaluates its utility for identifying feedback loop structures responsible for behavioural changes in complex ecological systems. The approach is demonstrated by analysing a simple lake system model that has been extensively studied in the past for its capacity to undertake critical transitions between alternative stable states. We show how the dominance of feedback loops can be tracked through time building influence over the system's behaviour decades prior to the actual collapse in the system. We discuss our findings in the context of studying complex ecosystems and socio-ecological systems.

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ORCID for James G. Dyke: orcid.org/0000-0002-6779-1682

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