The total social costs of constructing and operating a maglev line using a case study of the riyadh-dammam corridor, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Background: introducing Magnetic Levitation (Maglev) technology in a developing country is a big challenge that needs huge investments in infrastructure, operations and maintenance. Background information about the development of Maglev worldwide to date is included.

Aim: determine a methodology to estimate the full cost of travel and provide insights into the working model developed to include the calculations of the total social costs of building a new Maglev line for the Riyadh-Dammam corridor in Saudi Arabia and understand in what circumstances it is a suitable technology to use.

Methods: the Spreadsheet Total Cost Model (STCM) is used to determine the calculations of operator costs, user costs, and environmental costs. However, the operator costs are related to infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, and costs associated with the acquisition, operation and maintenance of Maglev rolling stock. The user costs are dependent on the journey time, including access/egress time, waiting time, and in-vehicle time. The value of time is considered in order to get the user costs calculated. The external costs include air pollution, noise pollution, accident, and climate change per passenger-km.

Results: the travel demand has to be forecasted in order to determine the total social costs, using the elasticity approach between the proposed HSR and Maglev lines in terms of their number of trips and the generalised journey times. In addition, the generalised journey time is based on the in-vehicle time and service interval penalty. The Maglev system is operated at the capacity limit and the change in service is therefore forecasted to increase the Maglev demand by 24.6 % (3.25 million passengers). In terms of the total infrastructure costs, the infrastructure construction and maintenance costs are included and computed to be about € 835.4 million per year, using the capital recovery factor (0.06) based on 35 years of operation and a 5 % social discount rate. The acquiring, operating, and maintaining train’s unit cost is included in the calculation of rolling stock to achieve results of € 22.4 million, € 22.5 million, and € 40.9 million, respectively. In terms of the user costs, the access/egress time is computed as of 33 minutes, using the car, while the in-vehicle travel time and waiting time are resulted of 61.8 minutes and 7.8 minutes, respectively. The external environmental costs are based on accidents, and climate changes of € 8.87 million per year and € 8.13 million per year, respectively. However, the total social costs of Maglev line are computed as € 1.18 billion for 16.45 million passengers per year. This gives an average social cost of € 71.9 per passenger. The comparable figures for High-Speed Rail (HSR) are € 1.10 billion for 13.21 million passengers per year, giving an average social cost of € 83 per passenger.

Conclusion: in conclusion, the Riyadh-Dammam Maglev system introduces a new intercity system into Saudi Arabia and brings new competition in the intercity transit market as a part of the future transport developments in the country. The average social cost for HSR is around 16 % higher than Maglev- but that is more proven technology.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Jonathan Preston: orcid.org/0000-0002-6866-049X

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