Nicholls, Robert, Hinkel, Jochen, Lincke, Daniel and van der Pol, Thomas (2019) Global investment costs for coastal defense through the 21st century (Policy Research Working Paper, WPS8745, 1) Washington DC. World Bank Group 64pp. (In Press)
Abstract
Sea-level rise threatens low-lying areas around the world's coasts with increased coastal flooding during storms. One response to this challenge is to build or upgrade coastal flood defenses. This report examines the potential investment costs of such an adaptation strategy applied globally over the 21st century for sea-level rise scenarios consistent with three Representative Concentration Pathways and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. For all the protection models considered, much less than half of the world's coast is protected. The total defense costs are significantly higher than earlier estimates, amounting to as much as US$18.3 trillion. With cost-benefit analysis, there are large uncertainties and empirical observations of protection standards are limited. Hence, the estimates should be considered as indicative, and this remains an important topic for future research. Further, building defenses is not a one-off capital investment. Over the 21st century, the cost of a comprehensive protection strategy is dominated by maintenance costs in all the cases considered in this report. This indicates that in addition to capital investment, the development of appropriate institutions and governance mechanisms to deliver maintenance, as well as the necessary funding streams, are essential for such a protection-based adaptation strategy to be effective.
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- Current Faculties > Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences > Institute for Life Sciences
Institute for Life Sciences - Faculties (pre 2018 reorg) > Faculty of Engineering and the Environment (pre 2018 reorg) > Southampton Marine & Maritime Institute (pre 2018 reorg)
- Current Faculties > Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences > School of Engineering > Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering > Energy and Climate Change Group
Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering > Energy and Climate Change Group - Current Faculties > Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences > School of Engineering > Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering
Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering
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