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Project portfolio implementation under uncertainty and interdependencies: A simulation study of behavioural responses

Project portfolio implementation under uncertainty and interdependencies: A simulation study of behavioural responses
Project portfolio implementation under uncertainty and interdependencies: A simulation study of behavioural responses
Even though systems thinking has been highlighted in portfolio management theory, independent project control logic still dominates its implementation process. This paper constructs a system dynamics model for portfolio monitoring and control. Considering the on-going portfolio as a complex social system, the impacts of project interdependencies ( ) on portfolio decision-making are investigated under a behavioral paradigm. Our findings indicate the remedial actions, affected by behavioral factors like planning fallacy and ‘Pet project’ effects, may generate escalation of commitment under specific levels of uncertainty and interdependencies. Thus, portfolio coordination decisions should be made from a strategic perspective with the consideration of complexities embedded in the system and behavioral responses from portfolio managers.
0160-5682
Wang, Lin
82527212-6487-4bb9-85d2-5e186ac79df1
Kunc, Martin
0b254052-f9f5-49f9-ac0b-148c257ba412
Li, Jianping
ef4b949a-6b47-4a7e-a342-bb0a9b15ca8a
Wang, Lin
82527212-6487-4bb9-85d2-5e186ac79df1
Kunc, Martin
0b254052-f9f5-49f9-ac0b-148c257ba412
Li, Jianping
ef4b949a-6b47-4a7e-a342-bb0a9b15ca8a

Wang, Lin, Kunc, Martin and Li, Jianping (2019) Project portfolio implementation under uncertainty and interdependencies: A simulation study of behavioural responses. Journal of the Operational Research Society. (doi:10.1080/01605682.2019.1609890).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Even though systems thinking has been highlighted in portfolio management theory, independent project control logic still dominates its implementation process. This paper constructs a system dynamics model for portfolio monitoring and control. Considering the on-going portfolio as a complex social system, the impacts of project interdependencies ( ) on portfolio decision-making are investigated under a behavioral paradigm. Our findings indicate the remedial actions, affected by behavioral factors like planning fallacy and ‘Pet project’ effects, may generate escalation of commitment under specific levels of uncertainty and interdependencies. Thus, portfolio coordination decisions should be made from a strategic perspective with the consideration of complexities embedded in the system and behavioral responses from portfolio managers.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 13 April 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 21 May 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 430313
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/430313
ISSN: 0160-5682
PURE UUID: 43ce04d7-b0d9-47a4-881c-5c4b22246c92
ORCID for Martin Kunc: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3411-4052

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 25 Apr 2019 16:30
Last modified: 22 Nov 2019 01:21

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Contributors

Author: Lin Wang
Author: Martin Kunc ORCID iD
Author: Jianping Li

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