International migration: trends, determinants and policy effects
International migration: trends, determinants and policy effects
This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post-WWII global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post-WWII migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, ‘substitution effects’ can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting ‘now or never’ migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
de Haas, Hein
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Czaika, Mathias
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Flahaux, Marie Laurence
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Mahendra, Edo
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Natter, Katharina
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Vezzoli, Simona
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Villares-Varela, Maria
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de Haas, Hein
7c8694dd-c8a1-48ec-a989-9593cbffd788
Czaika, Mathias
2e99b4b9-0bc8-4665-b5a1-431cbd6f9b3f
Flahaux, Marie Laurence
6980d281-c9f4-430b-a3f4-e62c4708bb71
Mahendra, Edo
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Natter, Katharina
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Vezzoli, Simona
4488cb3e-60f7-448b-9b98-a591f087a3c5
Villares-Varela, Maria
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de Haas, Hein, Czaika, Mathias, Flahaux, Marie Laurence, Mahendra, Edo, Natter, Katharina, Vezzoli, Simona and Villares-Varela, Maria
(2019)
International migration: trends, determinants and policy effects.
Population and Development Review.
(doi:10.1111/padr.12291).
Abstract
This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post-WWII global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post-WWII migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, ‘substitution effects’ can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting ‘now or never’ migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
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Accepted/In Press date: 16 April 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 8 October 2019
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 430504
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/430504
ISSN: 0098-7921
PURE UUID: 2875ca29-a7f5-4abb-90e4-78c2cde7dcfc
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Date deposited: 02 May 2019 16:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 07:48
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Contributors
Author:
Hein de Haas
Author:
Mathias Czaika
Author:
Marie Laurence Flahaux
Author:
Edo Mahendra
Author:
Katharina Natter
Author:
Simona Vezzoli
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