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Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections
Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections
Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modelling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on population adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.
0027-8424
10418-10423
Razgour, Orly
107f4912-304a-44d5-99f8-cdf2a9ce6f14
Forester, Brenna
22e0594b-0ec7-4c55-98d4-8890127e7b54
Taggart, John
bbbd012d-a9c2-4883-95fd-41be131b97d7
Bekaert, Michael
11f3adc5-e0f3-44d2-b7ea-41f3d7d07236
Juste, Javier
4df8b294-6c24-40fc-bde9-b5b726c12ccf
Ibáñez, Carlos
00483774-0a4f-400b-916b-4b588e9eeec9
Puechmaille, Sebastien
0aefa922-b283-4416-8f21-2ba1497f9f0f
Novella Fernandez, Roberto
25b2cef1-c3a7-4fae-99f5-8c26b584445b
Alberdi, Antton
10152d4f-41f2-420f-a0d1-cd6e548d2317
Manel, Stephanie
2a11de57-a34a-4460-b404-bce0977134ca
Razgour, Orly
107f4912-304a-44d5-99f8-cdf2a9ce6f14
Forester, Brenna
22e0594b-0ec7-4c55-98d4-8890127e7b54
Taggart, John
bbbd012d-a9c2-4883-95fd-41be131b97d7
Bekaert, Michael
11f3adc5-e0f3-44d2-b7ea-41f3d7d07236
Juste, Javier
4df8b294-6c24-40fc-bde9-b5b726c12ccf
Ibáñez, Carlos
00483774-0a4f-400b-916b-4b588e9eeec9
Puechmaille, Sebastien
0aefa922-b283-4416-8f21-2ba1497f9f0f
Novella Fernandez, Roberto
25b2cef1-c3a7-4fae-99f5-8c26b584445b
Alberdi, Antton
10152d4f-41f2-420f-a0d1-cd6e548d2317
Manel, Stephanie
2a11de57-a34a-4460-b404-bce0977134ca

Razgour, Orly, Forester, Brenna, Taggart, John, Bekaert, Michael, Juste, Javier, Ibáñez, Carlos, Puechmaille, Sebastien, Novella Fernandez, Roberto, Alberdi, Antton and Manel, Stephanie (2019) Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116 (21), 10418-10423. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1820663116).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modelling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on population adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

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Accepted/In Press date: 26 March 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 6 May 2019
Published date: 21 May 2019

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 430655
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/430655
ISSN: 0027-8424
PURE UUID: 94e00ec3-2e54-4cf6-ad63-8c07cd641238
ORCID for Orly Razgour: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3186-0313

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Date deposited: 07 May 2019 16:30
Last modified: 18 Feb 2021 17:26

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