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Uncertainty in marine weather routing

Uncertainty in marine weather routing
Uncertainty in marine weather routing
Weather routing methods are essential for planning routes for commercial shipping and recreational craft. This paper provides a methodology for quantifying the significance of numerical error and performance model uncertainty on the predictions returned from a weather routing algorithm. The numerical error of the routing algorithm is estimated by solving the optimum path over different discretizations of the environment. The uncertainty associated with the performance model is linearly varied in order to quantify its significance. The methodology is applied to a sailing craft routing problem: the prediction of the voyaging time for an ethnographic voyaging canoe across long distance voyages in Polynesia. We find that the average numerical error is 0.396%, corresponding to 1.05 hours for an average voyage length of 266.40 hours. An uncertainty level of 2.5% in the performance model is seen to correspond to a standard deviation of 2.41-3.08% of the voyaging time. These results illustrate the significance of considering the influence of numerical error and performance uncertainty when performing a weather routing study.
weather routing, voyage modelling, Polynesia
0141-1187
138-146
Dickson, Thomas
9885f258-727b-4f24-aab4-700930687080
Farr, Rosemary
4aba646f-b279-4d7a-8795-b0ae9e772fe9
Sear, David
ccd892ab-a93d-4073-a11c-b8bca42ecfd3
Blake, James
6afa420d-0936-4acc-861b-36885406c891
Dickson, Thomas
9885f258-727b-4f24-aab4-700930687080
Farr, Rosemary
4aba646f-b279-4d7a-8795-b0ae9e772fe9
Sear, David
ccd892ab-a93d-4073-a11c-b8bca42ecfd3
Blake, James
6afa420d-0936-4acc-861b-36885406c891

Dickson, Thomas, Farr, Rosemary, Sear, David and Blake, James (2019) Uncertainty in marine weather routing. Applied Ocean Research, 88, 138-146. (doi:10.1016/j.apor.2019.04.008).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Weather routing methods are essential for planning routes for commercial shipping and recreational craft. This paper provides a methodology for quantifying the significance of numerical error and performance model uncertainty on the predictions returned from a weather routing algorithm. The numerical error of the routing algorithm is estimated by solving the optimum path over different discretizations of the environment. The uncertainty associated with the performance model is linearly varied in order to quantify its significance. The methodology is applied to a sailing craft routing problem: the prediction of the voyaging time for an ethnographic voyaging canoe across long distance voyages in Polynesia. We find that the average numerical error is 0.396%, corresponding to 1.05 hours for an average voyage length of 266.40 hours. An uncertainty level of 2.5% in the performance model is seen to correspond to a standard deviation of 2.41-3.08% of the voyaging time. These results illustrate the significance of considering the influence of numerical error and performance uncertainty when performing a weather routing study.

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SA_weather_routing_V2 - Accepted Manuscript
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 6 April 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 4 May 2019
Published date: July 2019
Keywords: weather routing, voyage modelling, Polynesia

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 430885
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/430885
ISSN: 0141-1187
PURE UUID: 8e4d5bb5-daaf-410b-a95a-a2d6b6f50a52
ORCID for David Sear: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0191-6179

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 16 May 2019 16:30
Last modified: 23 May 2019 00:37

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