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A fuzzy-based risk assessment framework for autonomous underwater vehicle under-ice missions

A fuzzy-based risk assessment framework for autonomous underwater vehicle under-ice missions
A fuzzy-based risk assessment framework for autonomous underwater vehicle under-ice missions
The use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) for various scientific, commercial and military applications has become more common with maturing technology and improved accessibility. One relatively new development lies in the use of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic. The extreme environment, ice-cover and inaccessibility as compared to open water missions can result in a higher risk of loss. Therefore, having an effective assessment of risks before undertaking any Antarctic under-ice missions is crucial to ensure an AUV’s survival. Existing risk assessment approaches predominantly focused on the use of historical fault log data of an AUV and elicitation of experts’ opinions for probabilistic quantification. However, an AUV program in its early phases lacks historical data and any assessment of risk may be vague and ambiguous. In this paper, a fuzzy-based risk assessment framework is proposed for quantifying the risk of AUV loss under-ice. The framework utilises the knowledge, prior experience of available subject matter experts and the widely used semi-quantitative risk assessment matrix, albeit in a new form. A well-developed example based on an upcoming mission by an ISE-Explorer class AUV is presented to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed framework. The example demonstrates that the proposed fuzzy-based risk assessment framework is pragmatically useful for future under-ice AUV deployments. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle; Fuzzy Set Theory; Risk Assessment; Under-Ice
0272-4332
1-27
Loh, Tzu Yang
f21489db-1aa9-4cdf-bcb0-ad784a98b2fb
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Bose, Neil
37b8d6e4-fd93-4bbe-827c-f060e0ce0851
Xu, Jingjing
879c88fa-1ef9-4288-8bb8-27479b6274ec
Tenekedjiev, Kiril
82dd0d80-2ee5-4db2-b04a-654cc703bd47
Loh, Tzu Yang
f21489db-1aa9-4cdf-bcb0-ad784a98b2fb
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Bose, Neil
37b8d6e4-fd93-4bbe-827c-f060e0ce0851
Xu, Jingjing
879c88fa-1ef9-4288-8bb8-27479b6274ec
Tenekedjiev, Kiril
82dd0d80-2ee5-4db2-b04a-654cc703bd47

Loh, Tzu Yang, Brito, Mario, Bose, Neil, Xu, Jingjing and Tenekedjiev, Kiril (2019) A fuzzy-based risk assessment framework for autonomous underwater vehicle under-ice missions. Risk Analysis, 1-27. (doi:10.1111/risa.13376).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) for various scientific, commercial and military applications has become more common with maturing technology and improved accessibility. One relatively new development lies in the use of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic. The extreme environment, ice-cover and inaccessibility as compared to open water missions can result in a higher risk of loss. Therefore, having an effective assessment of risks before undertaking any Antarctic under-ice missions is crucial to ensure an AUV’s survival. Existing risk assessment approaches predominantly focused on the use of historical fault log data of an AUV and elicitation of experts’ opinions for probabilistic quantification. However, an AUV program in its early phases lacks historical data and any assessment of risk may be vague and ambiguous. In this paper, a fuzzy-based risk assessment framework is proposed for quantifying the risk of AUV loss under-ice. The framework utilises the knowledge, prior experience of available subject matter experts and the widely used semi-quantitative risk assessment matrix, albeit in a new form. A well-developed example based on an upcoming mission by an ISE-Explorer class AUV is presented to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed framework. The example demonstrates that the proposed fuzzy-based risk assessment framework is pragmatically useful for future under-ice AUV deployments. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.

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Accepted/In Press date: 12 June 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 18 July 2019
Keywords: Autonomous Underwater Vehicle; Fuzzy Set Theory; Risk Assessment; Under-Ice

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 432329
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/432329
ISSN: 0272-4332
PURE UUID: 7364f41a-61b9-401d-9d74-6e141b853f89

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Date deposited: 10 Jul 2019 16:30
Last modified: 29 Nov 2019 17:32

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