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The use of air travel data for predicting dengue importation to China: A modelling study

The use of air travel data for predicting dengue importation to China: A modelling study
The use of air travel data for predicting dengue importation to China: A modelling study
Background
Dengue virus importation from abroad is still the main driver of dengue incidence in China. Using global flight data to model importation may improve our understanding and prediction of dengue virus importation and onward transmission.

Methods
A retrospective analysis was performed of surveillance cases of dengue infections imported to China and volume of air traffic to China for the years 2005 through 2014, inclusive. The data were aggregated by year, destination province, and source country. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and a random effects negative binomial model was created to predict the number of imported cases based on the volume of travelers from dengue-endemic countries.

Results
There were 1,822 cases of imported dengue infections over the study period. Most imported cases are from a small number of high-incidence countries with a large volume of travel to China, most notably Myanmar (22% of cases). The number of imported cases of dengue infections increased by 5.9% for every 10% increase in travel volume from dengue-endemic countries.

Conclusion
Patterns of air travel have a measurable impact on the importation of dengue to China. Modelling dengue importation risk may be a useful strategy to direct public health surveillance and interventions.
Dengue, Air travel, Epidemics, Communicable diseases, Imported, China, Arboviruses, Travel-related illness
1477-8939
Findlater, Aidan
261540f8-e02e-42c0-8360-d1addf42d3db
Moineddin, Rahim
39976d2e-863b-4264-92ad-fd15a9bedc55
Kain, Dylan
a77768a9-40cf-4b70-9255-47ae63d7dc56
Yang, Juan
7d6bb0a9-7886-457c-97d6-be0b4dfd89cf
Wang, Xiling
e4cf7b58-e2f7-4a20-8608-343c46583fdf
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Khan, Kamran
f55abc91-5af0-4175-a845-90e88ab2e45a
Bogoch, Isaac I.
2f25f533-9b71-483b-8100-17647ba0926b
Findlater, Aidan
261540f8-e02e-42c0-8360-d1addf42d3db
Moineddin, Rahim
39976d2e-863b-4264-92ad-fd15a9bedc55
Kain, Dylan
a77768a9-40cf-4b70-9255-47ae63d7dc56
Yang, Juan
7d6bb0a9-7886-457c-97d6-be0b4dfd89cf
Wang, Xiling
e4cf7b58-e2f7-4a20-8608-343c46583fdf
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Khan, Kamran
f55abc91-5af0-4175-a845-90e88ab2e45a
Bogoch, Isaac I.
2f25f533-9b71-483b-8100-17647ba0926b

Findlater, Aidan, Moineddin, Rahim, Kain, Dylan, Yang, Juan, Wang, Xiling, Lai, Shengjie, Khan, Kamran and Bogoch, Isaac I. (2019) The use of air travel data for predicting dengue importation to China: A modelling study. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease. (doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.07.002).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Background
Dengue virus importation from abroad is still the main driver of dengue incidence in China. Using global flight data to model importation may improve our understanding and prediction of dengue virus importation and onward transmission.

Methods
A retrospective analysis was performed of surveillance cases of dengue infections imported to China and volume of air traffic to China for the years 2005 through 2014, inclusive. The data were aggregated by year, destination province, and source country. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and a random effects negative binomial model was created to predict the number of imported cases based on the volume of travelers from dengue-endemic countries.

Results
There were 1,822 cases of imported dengue infections over the study period. Most imported cases are from a small number of high-incidence countries with a large volume of travel to China, most notably Myanmar (22% of cases). The number of imported cases of dengue infections increased by 5.9% for every 10% increase in travel volume from dengue-endemic countries.

Conclusion
Patterns of air travel have a measurable impact on the importation of dengue to China. Modelling dengue importation risk may be a useful strategy to direct public health surveillance and interventions.

Text
Revision TMAID-D-19-00144 TRACK CHANGES - Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 5 July 2020.
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More information

Submitted date: 18 June 2019
Accepted/In Press date: 3 July 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 5 July 2019
Keywords: Dengue, Air travel, Epidemics, Communicable diseases, Imported, China, Arboviruses, Travel-related illness

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 432502
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/432502
ISSN: 1477-8939
PURE UUID: b9b02cf6-0b6c-4c18-aab3-5d088f4836bb
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 17 Jul 2019 16:30
Last modified: 17 Dec 2019 01:23

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Contributors

Author: Aidan Findlater
Author: Rahim Moineddin
Author: Dylan Kain
Author: Juan Yang
Author: Xiling Wang
Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD
Author: Kamran Khan
Author: Isaac I. Bogoch

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