The relationship between anomalistic belief, misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy
The relationship between anomalistic belief, misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy
A poor understanding of probability may lead people to misinterpret every day coincidences and form anomalistic (e.g., paranormal) beliefs. We investigated the relationship between anomalistic belief (including type of belief) and misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy across both anomalistic and control (i.e., neutral) contexts. Greater anomalistic belief was associated with poorer performance for both types of items; however there were no significant interactions between belief and context. For misperception of chance items, only experiential (vs. theoretical) anomalistic beliefs predicted more errors. In contrast, overall anomalistic belief was positively related to the base rate fallacy but no specific subtype of anomalistic belief was a significant predictor. The results indicate misperception of chance may lead people to interpret coincidental events as having an anomalistic cause, and a poor understanding of base rates may make people more prone to forming anomalistic beliefs.
Anomalistic belief, base rate fallacy, misperception of chance, paranormal belief, probabilistic reasoning
1-32
Prike, Toby
3e9dc48b-6bc2-4840-8466-b31f16182820
Arnold, Michelle M.
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Williamson, Paul
67e1362c-2263-43df-ace1-7973c954c0e0
Prike, Toby
3e9dc48b-6bc2-4840-8466-b31f16182820
Arnold, Michelle M.
2d448208-4aa2-4d71-9249-2f0b58940304
Williamson, Paul
67e1362c-2263-43df-ace1-7973c954c0e0
Prike, Toby, Arnold, Michelle M. and Williamson, Paul
(2019)
The relationship between anomalistic belief, misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy.
Thinking and Reasoning, .
(doi:10.1080/13546783.2019.1653371).
Abstract
A poor understanding of probability may lead people to misinterpret every day coincidences and form anomalistic (e.g., paranormal) beliefs. We investigated the relationship between anomalistic belief (including type of belief) and misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy across both anomalistic and control (i.e., neutral) contexts. Greater anomalistic belief was associated with poorer performance for both types of items; however there were no significant interactions between belief and context. For misperception of chance items, only experiential (vs. theoretical) anomalistic beliefs predicted more errors. In contrast, overall anomalistic belief was positively related to the base rate fallacy but no specific subtype of anomalistic belief was a significant predictor. The results indicate misperception of chance may lead people to interpret coincidental events as having an anomalistic cause, and a poor understanding of base rates may make people more prone to forming anomalistic beliefs.
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Prike et al. (2019) Anomalistic Belief, Misperception of Chance, and the Base Rate Fallacy
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Accepted/In Press date: 1 August 2019
e-pub ahead of print date: 21 August 2019
Keywords:
Anomalistic belief, base rate fallacy, misperception of chance, paranormal belief, probabilistic reasoning
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Local EPrints ID: 434510
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/434510
ISSN: 1354-6783
PURE UUID: b3bd4af5-eba1-46f4-b208-08e0f2e54528
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Date deposited: 25 Sep 2019 16:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 08:13
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Author:
Toby Prike
Author:
Michelle M. Arnold
Author:
Paul Williamson
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