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The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organizations

The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organizations
The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organizations

This study assesses the extent the anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias leads to inaccurate judgments among frontline employees in complex multi-stakeholder supply chain organizations. Data is obtained from an experiment-based questionnaire in a United Kingdom based freight forward and materials handling company. Analysis is undertaken using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results suggest that frontline employees within consistently overestimate probabilities when framed in a conjunctive manner. They also consistently underestimate probabilities when framed in a disjunctive manner and also exhibit considerable overconfidence in their judgements. Mixed evidence was found regarding susceptibility to anchoring and overconfidence in terms of level of expertise and geographical location. Findings highlight the critical role of communication in establishing reflective monitoring of, and improvements to, heuristics usage in daily supply chain decisions.

Decision making, Frontline employees, Heuristics, Overconfidence bias, Supply chain management
0953-7287
Doyle, Jake
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Ojiako, Udechukwu
fbdd073a-7656-4d94-aa4b-31e8cd7bfeca
Marshall, Alasdair
93aa95a2-c707-4807-8eaa-1de3b994b616
Dawson, Ian
dff1b440-6c83-4354-92b6-04809460b01a
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Doyle, Jake
598000e6-8181-4938-af33-8e8fa5f46651
Ojiako, Udechukwu
fbdd073a-7656-4d94-aa4b-31e8cd7bfeca
Marshall, Alasdair
93aa95a2-c707-4807-8eaa-1de3b994b616
Dawson, Ian
dff1b440-6c83-4354-92b6-04809460b01a
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c

Doyle, Jake, Ojiako, Udechukwu, Marshall, Alasdair, Dawson, Ian and Brito, Mario (2020) The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organizations. Production Planning & Control. (doi:10.1080/09537287.2020.1744042).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This study assesses the extent the anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias leads to inaccurate judgments among frontline employees in complex multi-stakeholder supply chain organizations. Data is obtained from an experiment-based questionnaire in a United Kingdom based freight forward and materials handling company. Analysis is undertaken using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results suggest that frontline employees within consistently overestimate probabilities when framed in a conjunctive manner. They also consistently underestimate probabilities when framed in a disjunctive manner and also exhibit considerable overconfidence in their judgements. Mixed evidence was found regarding susceptibility to anchoring and overconfidence in terms of level of expertise and geographical location. Findings highlight the critical role of communication in establishing reflective monitoring of, and improvements to, heuristics usage in daily supply chain decisions.

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Anchoring & Overconfidence Among Supply Chain Employees - Pre-Publication Version - Accepted Manuscript
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 14 March 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 25 March 2020
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2020, © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Keywords: Decision making, Frontline employees, Heuristics, Overconfidence bias, Supply chain management

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 438544
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/438544
ISSN: 0953-7287
PURE UUID: 169124fd-2500-4f39-977a-4ee6c51a9f90
ORCID for Alasdair Marshall: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9789-8042
ORCID for Ian Dawson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0555-9682
ORCID for Mario Brito: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1779-4535

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 16 Mar 2020 17:30
Last modified: 17 Sep 2022 04:01

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Contributors

Author: Jake Doyle
Author: Udechukwu Ojiako
Author: Ian Dawson ORCID iD
Author: Mario Brito ORCID iD

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