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The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organisations.

The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organisations.
The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organisations.
The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which the anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias can lead to inaccurate judgments in operational settings among frontline employees of complex multi-stakeholder supply chain organisations. Data is obtained from an experiment-based questionnaire of frontline employees in a United Kingdom based freight forward and materials handling company. Analysis is undertaken using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results suggest that frontline employees within this complex multi-stakeholder supply chain organisations, consistently overestimated probabilities when framed in a conjunctive manner. They also consistently underestimated probabilities when framed in a disjunctive manner and exhibited considerable overconfidence in their judgements. Mixed evidence was found regarding susceptibility to anchoring and overconfidence in terms of level of expertise and geographical location. Overall, the study elucidates the specific dimensions of anchoring and overconfidence that may lead to judgmental biases in complex multi-stakeholder supply chain decisions. The findings highlight the critical role of communication in establishing reflective monitoring of, and improvements to, heuristics usage by frontline employees involved in daily supply chain decisions. It also suggests that practitioners should be encouraged to reflect on whether, when and how anchoring and overconfidence should be employed as key judgmental aids in statistical estimations.
Heuristics, Overconfidence bias, Frontline employees, Supply chain management, Decision making
0953-7287
Doyle, Jake
598000e6-8181-4938-af33-8e8fa5f46651
Ojiako, Udechukwu
fbdd073a-7656-4d94-aa4b-31e8cd7bfeca
Marshall, Alasdair
93aa95a2-c707-4807-8eaa-1de3b994b616
Dawson, Ian
dff1b440-6c83-4354-92b6-04809460b01a
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Doyle, Jake
598000e6-8181-4938-af33-8e8fa5f46651
Ojiako, Udechukwu
fbdd073a-7656-4d94-aa4b-31e8cd7bfeca
Marshall, Alasdair
93aa95a2-c707-4807-8eaa-1de3b994b616
Dawson, Ian
dff1b440-6c83-4354-92b6-04809460b01a
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c

Doyle, Jake, Ojiako, Udechukwu, Marshall, Alasdair, Dawson, Ian and Brito, Mario (2020) The anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias among frontline employees in supply chain organisations. Production Planning & Control. (doi:10.1080/09537287.2020.1744042).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which the anchoring heuristic and overconfidence bias can lead to inaccurate judgments in operational settings among frontline employees of complex multi-stakeholder supply chain organisations. Data is obtained from an experiment-based questionnaire of frontline employees in a United Kingdom based freight forward and materials handling company. Analysis is undertaken using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results suggest that frontline employees within this complex multi-stakeholder supply chain organisations, consistently overestimated probabilities when framed in a conjunctive manner. They also consistently underestimated probabilities when framed in a disjunctive manner and exhibited considerable overconfidence in their judgements. Mixed evidence was found regarding susceptibility to anchoring and overconfidence in terms of level of expertise and geographical location. Overall, the study elucidates the specific dimensions of anchoring and overconfidence that may lead to judgmental biases in complex multi-stakeholder supply chain decisions. The findings highlight the critical role of communication in establishing reflective monitoring of, and improvements to, heuristics usage by frontline employees involved in daily supply chain decisions. It also suggests that practitioners should be encouraged to reflect on whether, when and how anchoring and overconfidence should be employed as key judgmental aids in statistical estimations.

Text
Anchoring & Overconfidence Among Supply Chain Employees - Pre-Publication Version - Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 25 March 2021.
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 14 March 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 25 March 2020
Keywords: Heuristics, Overconfidence bias, Frontline employees, Supply chain management, Decision making

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 438544
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/438544
ISSN: 0953-7287
PURE UUID: 169124fd-2500-4f39-977a-4ee6c51a9f90
ORCID for Alasdair Marshall: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9789-8042
ORCID for Ian Dawson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0555-9682

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 16 Mar 2020 17:30
Last modified: 19 May 2020 00:40

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