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Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Kazakhstan and development of a country specific FRAX model

Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Kazakhstan and development of a country specific FRAX model
Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Kazakhstan and development of a country specific FRAX model
Summary: retrospective and prospective population-based survey in a region of the Republic of Kazakhstan determined the incidence of fractures at the hip, proximal humerus and distal forearm. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX® model to enhance fracture risk assessment in Kazakhstan.

Objective: this paper describes the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in the Republic of Kazakhstan that was used to develop a country specific FRAX® tool for fracture prediction.

Methods: we carried out a retrospective population-based survey in Taldykorgan in the Republic of Kazakhstan representing approximately 1% of the country’s population. Hip, forearm and humerus fractures were identified retrospectively in 2015 and 2016 from hospital registers and the trauma centre. Hip fractures were prospectively identified in 2017 from the same sources and additionally from primary care data. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Kazakhstan. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models.

Results: the difference in hip fracture incidence between the retrospective and prospective survey indicated that approximately 25% of hip fracture cases did not come to hospital attention. The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 11,690 and is predicted to increase by 140% to 28,000 in 2050. Hip fracture incidence was a good predictor of forearm and humeral fractures in men but not in women.

Conclusion: the FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Kazakh population and help guide decisions about treatment.
Epidemiology, FRAX, Forearm fracture, Fracture probability, Hip fracture, Humerus fracture, Kazakhstan
1862-3522
30
Issayeva, S.
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Lesnyak, O.
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Zakroyeva, A.
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Issayeva, B.
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Dilmanova, D.
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Johansson, H.
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Liu, E.
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Lorentzon, M.
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Harvey, Nicholas
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McCloskey, E.
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Kanis, J. A.
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Issayeva, S.
1b7291e0-99f5-4822-9cff-2214a73438f4
Lesnyak, O.
79b8479e-2590-4bc1-8fbe-1f5941edc13e
Zakroyeva, A.
35caae30-2d23-4fa6-a96d-af08da40f4ee
Issayeva, B.
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Dilmanova, D.
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Johansson, H.
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Liu, E.
63b60e12-5d42-4f66-ba55-24da69557b35
Lorentzon, M.
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Harvey, Nicholas
ce487fb4-d360-4aac-9d17-9466d6cba145
McCloskey, E.
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Kanis, J. A.
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Issayeva, S., Lesnyak, O., Zakroyeva, A., Issayeva, B., Dilmanova, D., Johansson, H., Liu, E., Lorentzon, M., Harvey, Nicholas, McCloskey, E. and Kanis, J. A. (2020) Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Kazakhstan and development of a country specific FRAX model. Archives of Osteoporosis, 15 (1), 30, [30].

Record type: Article

Abstract

Summary: retrospective and prospective population-based survey in a region of the Republic of Kazakhstan determined the incidence of fractures at the hip, proximal humerus and distal forearm. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX® model to enhance fracture risk assessment in Kazakhstan.

Objective: this paper describes the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in the Republic of Kazakhstan that was used to develop a country specific FRAX® tool for fracture prediction.

Methods: we carried out a retrospective population-based survey in Taldykorgan in the Republic of Kazakhstan representing approximately 1% of the country’s population. Hip, forearm and humerus fractures were identified retrospectively in 2015 and 2016 from hospital registers and the trauma centre. Hip fractures were prospectively identified in 2017 from the same sources and additionally from primary care data. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Kazakhstan. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models.

Results: the difference in hip fracture incidence between the retrospective and prospective survey indicated that approximately 25% of hip fracture cases did not come to hospital attention. The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 11,690 and is predicted to increase by 140% to 28,000 in 2050. Hip fracture incidence was a good predictor of forearm and humeral fractures in men but not in women.

Conclusion: the FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Kazakh population and help guide decisions about treatment.

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Kazakhstan FRAX v4 - Accepted Manuscript
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Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Kazakhstan - Version of Record
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 15 January 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 27 February 2020
Keywords: Epidemiology, FRAX, Forearm fracture, Fracture probability, Hip fracture, Humerus fracture, Kazakhstan

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 438563
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/438563
ISSN: 1862-3522
PURE UUID: 9ebc6af9-59e0-423d-a582-364220c59ab9
ORCID for Nicholas Harvey: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8194-2512

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 17 Mar 2020 17:30
Last modified: 26 Nov 2021 02:48

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Contributors

Author: S. Issayeva
Author: O. Lesnyak
Author: A. Zakroyeva
Author: B. Issayeva
Author: D. Dilmanova
Author: H. Johansson
Author: E. Liu
Author: M. Lorentzon
Author: Nicholas Harvey ORCID iD
Author: E. McCloskey
Author: J. A. Kanis

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