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Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China

Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of NPIs and their timings. Using epidemiological and anonymised human movement data, here we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimated that there were a total of 114,325 COVID-19 cases (interquartile range 76,776 - 164,576) in mainland China as of February 29, 2020. Without NPIs, the COVID-19 cases would likely have shown a 67-fold increase (interquartile range 44 - 94) by February 29, 2020, with the effectiveness of different interventions varying. The early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to have prevented more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions, but combined NPIs achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. The lifting of travel restrictions since February 17, 2020 does not appear to lead to an increase in cases across China if the social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of 25% reduction on average through late April. Our findings contribute to an improved understanding of NPIs on COVID-19 and to inform response efforts across the World.
0028-0836
Lai, Shengjie
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Ruktanonchai, Nick
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Zhou, Liangcai
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Prosper, Olivia
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Luo, Wei
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Floyd, Jessica
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Wesolowski, Amy
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Santillana, Mauricio
3988a10d-f370-41aa-b4fe-df6b7ca0040b
Zhang, Chi
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Du, Xiangjun
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Hongjie, Yu
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Tatem, Andrew
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Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Ruktanonchai, Nick
fe68cb8d-3760-4955-99fa-47d43f86580a
Zhou, Liangcai
11c9d257-1256-4d56-86a6-d5e3d8fa9f79
Prosper, Olivia
5d82e9bd-8612-41b8-a266-444c6b98371b
Luo, Wei
c76a8e31-38e7-47cb-bd13-670fc8ab036d
Floyd, Jessica
b54620d7-9154-4807-a9a7-60d87001b0dc
Wesolowski, Amy
343b0df8-5a2f-46e2-9f1c-001d4adf7fb1
Santillana, Mauricio
3988a10d-f370-41aa-b4fe-df6b7ca0040b
Zhang, Chi
420acf73-d18f-49d7-941f-868ba2d772b9
Du, Xiangjun
20efe0ad-c516-44e1-9381-0539e00217d4
Hongjie, Yu
80d8f51d-a23c-468f-8ac9-7262d9b31b40
Tatem, Andrew
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e

Lai, Shengjie, Ruktanonchai, Nick, Zhou, Liangcai, Prosper, Olivia, Luo, Wei, Floyd, Jessica, Wesolowski, Amy, Santillana, Mauricio, Zhang, Chi, Du, Xiangjun, Hongjie, Yu and Tatem, Andrew (2020) Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China. Nature. (doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2293-x).

Record type: Article

Abstract

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of NPIs and their timings. Using epidemiological and anonymised human movement data, here we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimated that there were a total of 114,325 COVID-19 cases (interquartile range 76,776 - 164,576) in mainland China as of February 29, 2020. Without NPIs, the COVID-19 cases would likely have shown a 67-fold increase (interquartile range 44 - 94) by February 29, 2020, with the effectiveness of different interventions varying. The early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to have prevented more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions, but combined NPIs achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. The lifting of travel restrictions since February 17, 2020 does not appear to lead to an increase in cases across China if the social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of 25% reduction on average through late April. Our findings contribute to an improved understanding of NPIs on COVID-19 and to inform response efforts across the World.

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Accepted/In Press date: 23 April 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 4 May 2020
Published date: 4 May 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 439847
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/439847
ISSN: 0028-0836
PURE UUID: 7fd08364-769a-4cb9-9a32-b4c03d3f3934
ORCID for Shengjie Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148
ORCID for Andrew Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 05 May 2020 16:31
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 06:17

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Contributors

Author: Shengjie Lai ORCID iD
Author: Liangcai Zhou
Author: Olivia Prosper
Author: Wei Luo
Author: Jessica Floyd
Author: Amy Wesolowski
Author: Mauricio Santillana
Author: Chi Zhang
Author: Xiangjun Du
Author: Yu Hongjie
Author: Andrew Tatem ORCID iD

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