The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository
Warning ePrints Soton is experiencing an issue with some file downloads not being available. We are working hard to fix this. Please bear with us.

A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic

A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic
A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic
Summary
The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX® model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Introduction
The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.

Objective
This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Methods
The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Results
Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75–80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050.

Conclusion
The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.
Epidemiology, FRAX, Fracture probability, Hip fracture, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Surrogate
1862-3522
Lesnyak, O.
79b8479e-2590-4bc1-8fbe-1f5941edc13e
Zakroyeva, A.
35caae30-2d23-4fa6-a96d-af08da40f4ee
Lobanchenko, O.
ed4fa257-b214-4081-b3fd-47c9e802ec55
Johansson, H.
05aa5476-bcb9-4b97-905e-00f1dfd9d691
Liu, E.
63b60e12-5d42-4f66-ba55-24da69557b35
Lorentzon, M.
11692e10-5916-4bb5-86c5-3ff9ccd77af6
Harvey, N.C.
ce487fb4-d360-4aac-9d17-9466d6cba145
McCloskey, E.
5211de37-303a-42f8-b24b-00c475264f78
Kanis, J.A.
f1621d8d-8afb-4d97-9679-2165d88a344d
Lesnyak, O.
79b8479e-2590-4bc1-8fbe-1f5941edc13e
Zakroyeva, A.
35caae30-2d23-4fa6-a96d-af08da40f4ee
Lobanchenko, O.
ed4fa257-b214-4081-b3fd-47c9e802ec55
Johansson, H.
05aa5476-bcb9-4b97-905e-00f1dfd9d691
Liu, E.
63b60e12-5d42-4f66-ba55-24da69557b35
Lorentzon, M.
11692e10-5916-4bb5-86c5-3ff9ccd77af6
Harvey, N.C.
ce487fb4-d360-4aac-9d17-9466d6cba145
McCloskey, E.
5211de37-303a-42f8-b24b-00c475264f78
Kanis, J.A.
f1621d8d-8afb-4d97-9679-2165d88a344d

Lesnyak, O., Zakroyeva, A., Lobanchenko, O., Johansson, H., Liu, E., Lorentzon, M., Harvey, N.C., McCloskey, E. and Kanis, J.A. (2020) A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic. Archives of Osteoporosis, 15 (1), [68]. (doi:10.1007/s11657-020-00743-2).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Summary
The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX® model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Introduction
The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.

Objective
This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Methods
The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic.

Results
Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75–80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050.

Conclusion
The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Text
Kyrgyztan FRAX v7 - Accepted Manuscript
Download (104kB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 27 April 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 6 May 2020
Keywords: Epidemiology, FRAX, Fracture probability, Hip fracture, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Surrogate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 441021
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/441021
ISSN: 1862-3522
PURE UUID: 44e2d49d-7cbd-4aed-91a5-4111afb73651
ORCID for N.C. Harvey: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8194-2512

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 27 May 2020 16:55
Last modified: 26 Nov 2021 06:57

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: O. Lesnyak
Author: A. Zakroyeva
Author: O. Lobanchenko
Author: H. Johansson
Author: E. Liu
Author: M. Lorentzon
Author: N.C. Harvey ORCID iD
Author: E. McCloskey
Author: J.A. Kanis

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×