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A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic

A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic
A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic

The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX® model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

INTRODUCTION: The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.

OBJECTIVE: This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

METHODS: The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic.

RESULTS: Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75-80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050.

CONCLUSION: The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Epidemiology, FRAX, Fracture probability, Hip fracture, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Surrogate
1862-3522
Lesnyak, O.
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Zakroyeva, A.
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Lobanchenko, O.
ed4fa257-b214-4081-b3fd-47c9e802ec55
Johansson, H.
05aa5476-bcb9-4b97-905e-00f1dfd9d691
Liu, E.
63b60e12-5d42-4f66-ba55-24da69557b35
Lorentzon, M.
11692e10-5916-4bb5-86c5-3ff9ccd77af6
Harvey, N.C.
ce487fb4-d360-4aac-9d17-9466d6cba145
McCloskey, E.
5211de37-303a-42f8-b24b-00c475264f78
Kanis, J.A.
f1621d8d-8afb-4d97-9679-2165d88a344d
Lesnyak, O.
79b8479e-2590-4bc1-8fbe-1f5941edc13e
Zakroyeva, A.
35caae30-2d23-4fa6-a96d-af08da40f4ee
Lobanchenko, O.
ed4fa257-b214-4081-b3fd-47c9e802ec55
Johansson, H.
05aa5476-bcb9-4b97-905e-00f1dfd9d691
Liu, E.
63b60e12-5d42-4f66-ba55-24da69557b35
Lorentzon, M.
11692e10-5916-4bb5-86c5-3ff9ccd77af6
Harvey, N.C.
ce487fb4-d360-4aac-9d17-9466d6cba145
McCloskey, E.
5211de37-303a-42f8-b24b-00c475264f78
Kanis, J.A.
f1621d8d-8afb-4d97-9679-2165d88a344d

Lesnyak, O., Zakroyeva, A., Lobanchenko, O., Johansson, H., Liu, E., Lorentzon, M., Harvey, N.C., McCloskey, E. and Kanis, J.A. (2020) A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic. Archives of Osteoporosis, 15 (1), [68]. (doi:10.1007/s11657-020-00743-2).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX® model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

INTRODUCTION: The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.

OBJECTIVE: This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic.

METHODS: The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic.

RESULTS: Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75-80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050.

CONCLUSION: The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.

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Kyrgyztan FRAX v7 - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 27 April 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 6 May 2020
Published date: 1 December 2020
Additional Information: Funding Information: The EVA project was supported by the International Osteoporosis Foundation (Epidemiology and quality of life working group). Servier, however, is acknowledged in helping with organization of the EVA project, ‘Epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in Eurasian counties’ study (EVA or ЭВА, in Russian), of which this paper is one of the outcomes. Publisher Copyright: © 2020, The Author(s).
Keywords: Epidemiology, FRAX, Fracture probability, Hip fracture, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Surrogate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 441021
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/441021
ISSN: 1862-3522
PURE UUID: 44e2d49d-7cbd-4aed-91a5-4111afb73651
ORCID for N.C. Harvey: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8194-2512

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Date deposited: 27 May 2020 16:55
Last modified: 28 Jun 2022 04:01

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Contributors

Author: O. Lesnyak
Author: A. Zakroyeva
Author: O. Lobanchenko
Author: H. Johansson
Author: E. Liu
Author: M. Lorentzon
Author: N.C. Harvey ORCID iD
Author: E. McCloskey
Author: J.A. Kanis

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