Contrasting development trajectories for coastal Bangladesh to the end of century
Contrasting development trajectories for coastal Bangladesh to the end of century
Bangladesh is one of the most climate-sensitive countries globally, creating significant challenges for future development. Here we apply an integrated assessment model — Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) — to the south-west coastal zone of Bangladesh to explore the outcomes of four contrasting and plausible development trajectories under different climate and socio-economic scenarios: (1) embankment rehabilitation; (2) build elevation via controlled sedimentation; (3) planned migration (managed retreat) and (4) ‘do nothing’ (unplanned migration and abandonment). Embankment rehabilitation reduces flood risk, but at a high economic cost and enhancing waterlogging. Planned and unplanned migration combined with limited infrastructure management and governance both result in significant abandonment. Building elevation through sedimentation has the potential for increased environmental and economic sustainability but raises equity issues. Poverty and inequality persist across all scenarios, and outmigration from the coastal zone continues, although the magnitude is sensitive to assumptions about sea-level rise, socio-economic development and development trajectory. Integrated assessment tools linking the environment, people and policy choices, such as the ΔDIEM used here, highlight the complex interactions occurring in a dynamic delta environment. Such analysis supports informed management, development and adaptation.
coastal adaptation, delta, development trajectories, human wellbeing, integrated assessment model, policy options
Lazar, Attila
d7f835e7-1e3d-4742-b366-af19cf5fc881
Nicholls, Robert J.
903cd62d-0d6d-4150-8e73-35dfe20f1aaf
Hall, Jim
4613e0ec-942b-4ac0-ac58-77ec6a886cfc
Barbour, Emily J.
ae705093-b67c-496f-b85f-e5d03c9f0aab
Haque, Anisul
366a8b43-810c-4d74-a3cd-fd80e6adbc36
29 July 2020
Lazar, Attila
d7f835e7-1e3d-4742-b366-af19cf5fc881
Nicholls, Robert J.
903cd62d-0d6d-4150-8e73-35dfe20f1aaf
Hall, Jim
4613e0ec-942b-4ac0-ac58-77ec6a886cfc
Barbour, Emily J.
ae705093-b67c-496f-b85f-e5d03c9f0aab
Haque, Anisul
366a8b43-810c-4d74-a3cd-fd80e6adbc36
Lazar, Attila, Nicholls, Robert J., Hall, Jim, Barbour, Emily J. and Haque, Anisul
(2020)
Contrasting development trajectories for coastal Bangladesh to the end of century.
Regional Environmental Change, 20 (3), [93].
(doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01681-y).
Abstract
Bangladesh is one of the most climate-sensitive countries globally, creating significant challenges for future development. Here we apply an integrated assessment model — Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) — to the south-west coastal zone of Bangladesh to explore the outcomes of four contrasting and plausible development trajectories under different climate and socio-economic scenarios: (1) embankment rehabilitation; (2) build elevation via controlled sedimentation; (3) planned migration (managed retreat) and (4) ‘do nothing’ (unplanned migration and abandonment). Embankment rehabilitation reduces flood risk, but at a high economic cost and enhancing waterlogging. Planned and unplanned migration combined with limited infrastructure management and governance both result in significant abandonment. Building elevation through sedimentation has the potential for increased environmental and economic sustainability but raises equity issues. Poverty and inequality persist across all scenarios, and outmigration from the coastal zone continues, although the magnitude is sensitive to assumptions about sea-level rise, socio-economic development and development trajectory. Integrated assessment tools linking the environment, people and policy choices, such as the ΔDIEM used here, highlight the complex interactions occurring in a dynamic delta environment. Such analysis supports informed management, development and adaptation.
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Accepted/In Press date: 21 June 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 29 July 2020
Published date: 29 July 2020
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
This study (R34819/CN025) was funded from the DFID supported REACH programme (Aries Code 201880). However, the views expressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of or endorsed by DFID, which can accept no responsibility for such views or information or for any reliance placed on them.
Funding Information:
The ΔDIEM model was developed in the ‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation in Populous Deltas’ (NE-J002755-1)’ project, funded by the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
Keywords:
coastal adaptation, delta, development trajectories, human wellbeing, integrated assessment model, policy options
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 442283
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/442283
ISSN: 1436-3798
PURE UUID: 9dd5466b-f8c7-488d-bf53-833b29aa65a5
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Date deposited: 10 Jul 2020 16:31
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 05:41
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Author:
Robert J. Nicholls
Author:
Jim Hall
Author:
Emily J. Barbour
Author:
Anisul Haque
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