Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe
Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe
As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.
1465-1470
Ruktanonchai, N.W.
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Floyd, J.R.
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Lai, S.
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Ruktanonchai, C.W.
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Sadilek, A.
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Rente-Lourenco, P.
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Ben, X.
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Carioli, A.
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Gwinn, J.
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Steele, J.E.
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Prosper, O.
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Schneider, A.
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Oplinger, A.
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Eastham, P.
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Tatem, A.J.
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18 September 2020
Ruktanonchai, N.W.
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Floyd, J.R.
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Lai, S.
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Ruktanonchai, C.W.
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Sadilek, A.
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Rente-Lourenco, P.
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Ben, X.
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Carioli, A.
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Gwinn, J.
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Steele, J.E.
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Prosper, O.
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Schneider, A.
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Oplinger, A.
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Eastham, P.
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Tatem, A.J.
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Ruktanonchai, N.W., Floyd, J.R., Lai, S., Ruktanonchai, C.W., Sadilek, A., Rente-Lourenco, P., Ben, X., Carioli, A., Gwinn, J., Steele, J.E., Prosper, O., Schneider, A., Oplinger, A., Eastham, P. and Tatem, A.J.
(2020)
Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe.
Science, 369 (6510), , [eabc5096].
(doi:10.1126/science.abc5096).
Abstract
As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.
Text
science.abc5096.full
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 13 July 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 17 July 2020
Published date: 18 September 2020
Additional Information:
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 442561
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/442561
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: 4da5519e-ed8c-44e3-a805-b5e4b253ab48
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Date deposited: 20 Jul 2020 16:30
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:52
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Contributors
Author:
N.W. Ruktanonchai
Author:
J.R. Floyd
Author:
C.W. Ruktanonchai
Author:
A. Sadilek
Author:
P. Rente-Lourenco
Author:
X. Ben
Author:
A. Carioli
Author:
J. Gwinn
Author:
O. Prosper
Author:
A. Schneider
Author:
A. Oplinger
Author:
P. Eastham
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