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Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe

Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe
Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe
As rates of new COVID-19 cases decline across Europe due to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Here, we use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we found that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe meant half as many lockdown periods were required to end community transmission continent-wide.
0036-8075
Ruktanonchai, N.W.
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Floyd, J.R.
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Lai, S.
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Ruktanonchai, C.W.
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Sadilek, A.
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Rente-Lourenco, P.
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Ben, X.
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Carioli, A.
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Gwinn, J.
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Steele, J.E.
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Prosper, O.
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Schneider, A.
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Oplinger, A.
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Eastham, P.
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Tatem, A.J.
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Ruktanonchai, N.W.
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Floyd, J.R.
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Lai, S.
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Ruktanonchai, C.W.
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Sadilek, A.
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Rente-Lourenco, P.
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Ben, X.
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Carioli, A.
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Gwinn, J.
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Steele, J.E.
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Prosper, O.
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Schneider, A.
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Oplinger, A.
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Eastham, P.
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Tatem, A.J.
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Ruktanonchai, N.W., Floyd, J.R., Lai, S., Ruktanonchai, C.W., Sadilek, A., Rente-Lourenco, P., Ben, X., Carioli, A., Gwinn, J., Steele, J.E., Prosper, O., Schneider, A., Oplinger, A., Eastham, P. and Tatem, A.J. (2020) Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe. Science, [eabc5096]. (doi:10.1126/science.abc5096).

Record type: Article

Abstract

As rates of new COVID-19 cases decline across Europe due to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Here, we use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we found that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe meant half as many lockdown periods were required to end community transmission continent-wide.

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Accepted/In Press date: 13 July 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 17 July 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 442561
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/442561
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: 4da5519e-ed8c-44e3-a805-b5e4b253ab48
ORCID for S. Lai: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 20 Jul 2020 16:30
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 02:21

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Contributors

Author: J.R. Floyd
Author: S. Lai ORCID iD
Author: C.W. Ruktanonchai
Author: A. Sadilek
Author: P. Rente-Lourenco
Author: X. Ben
Author: A. Carioli
Author: J. Gwinn
Author: J.E. Steele
Author: O. Prosper
Author: A. Schneider
Author: A. Oplinger
Author: P. Eastham
Author: A.J. Tatem ORCID iD

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