The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Identifying Agricultural Frontiers for Modeling Global Cropland Expansion

Identifying Agricultural Frontiers for Modeling Global Cropland Expansion
Identifying Agricultural Frontiers for Modeling Global Cropland Expansion

The increasing expansion of cropland is major driver of global carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. However, predicting plausible future global distributions of croplands remains challenging. Here, we show that, in general, existing global data aligned with classical economic theories of expansion explain the current (1992) global extent of cropland reasonably well, but not recent expansion (1992–2015). Deviations from models of cropland extent in 1992 (“frontierness”) can be used to improve global models of recent expansion, most likely as these deviations are a proxy for cropland expansion under frontier conditions where classical economic theories of expansion are less applicable. Frontierness is insensitive to the land cover dataset used and is particularly effective in improving models that include mosaic land cover classes and the largely smallholder-driven frontier expansion occurring in such areas. Our findings have important implications as the frontierness approach offers a straightforward way to improve global land use change models.

agriculture, climate change, cropland expansion, deforestation, frontier dynamics, integrated assessment models, land use change, positive deviance analysis, sustainability
2590-3330
504-514
Eigenbrod, Felix
43efc6ae-b129-45a2-8a34-e489b5f05827
Beckmann, Michael
d1d1decb-276b-411c-af86-a2c56c981181
Dunnett, Sebastian Lionel
b1fb2503-c353-4b6c-bb29-0a2e82f04c1f
Graham, Laura
bc76bad7-f0fd-4e94-acf9-c7450ec36ae2
Holland, Robert
9c245e65-06bb-4b0e-8214-2b00ad2a47df
Meyfroidt, Patrick
ff1cdda2-d036-4b82-8bb1-3e881c9c45bf
Seppelt, Ralf
4cd90c92-af5d-433a-93aa-ba80e3a9bfee
Song, Xiao-Peng
60fae045-d906-4cc9-b1af-4267b42d0fc5
Spake, Rebecca
1cda8ad0-2ab2-45d9-a844-ec3d8be2786a
Václavík, Tomáš
0993e216-340e-49ff-ad6b-484bb90a8162
Verburg, Peter H.
cafef48a-4408-4838-b033-9db291f05630
Eigenbrod, Felix
43efc6ae-b129-45a2-8a34-e489b5f05827
Beckmann, Michael
d1d1decb-276b-411c-af86-a2c56c981181
Dunnett, Sebastian Lionel
b1fb2503-c353-4b6c-bb29-0a2e82f04c1f
Graham, Laura
bc76bad7-f0fd-4e94-acf9-c7450ec36ae2
Holland, Robert
9c245e65-06bb-4b0e-8214-2b00ad2a47df
Meyfroidt, Patrick
ff1cdda2-d036-4b82-8bb1-3e881c9c45bf
Seppelt, Ralf
4cd90c92-af5d-433a-93aa-ba80e3a9bfee
Song, Xiao-Peng
60fae045-d906-4cc9-b1af-4267b42d0fc5
Spake, Rebecca
1cda8ad0-2ab2-45d9-a844-ec3d8be2786a
Václavík, Tomáš
0993e216-340e-49ff-ad6b-484bb90a8162
Verburg, Peter H.
cafef48a-4408-4838-b033-9db291f05630

Eigenbrod, Felix, Beckmann, Michael, Dunnett, Sebastian Lionel, Graham, Laura, Holland, Robert, Meyfroidt, Patrick, Seppelt, Ralf, Song, Xiao-Peng, Spake, Rebecca, Václavík, Tomáš and Verburg, Peter H. (2020) Identifying Agricultural Frontiers for Modeling Global Cropland Expansion. One Earth, 3 (4), 504-514. (doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.09.006).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The increasing expansion of cropland is major driver of global carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. However, predicting plausible future global distributions of croplands remains challenging. Here, we show that, in general, existing global data aligned with classical economic theories of expansion explain the current (1992) global extent of cropland reasonably well, but not recent expansion (1992–2015). Deviations from models of cropland extent in 1992 (“frontierness”) can be used to improve global models of recent expansion, most likely as these deviations are a proxy for cropland expansion under frontier conditions where classical economic theories of expansion are less applicable. Frontierness is insensitive to the land cover dataset used and is particularly effective in improving models that include mosaic land cover classes and the largely smallholder-driven frontier expansion occurring in such areas. Our findings have important implications as the frontierness approach offers a straightforward way to improve global land use change models.

Text
AgriculturalFrontiers_MainTextFigHeadingsTables_WithFiguresAndSI - Accepted Manuscript
Restricted to Repository staff only until 23 September 2021.
Request a copy

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 23 September 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 14 October 2020
Published date: 23 October 2020
Keywords: agriculture, climate change, cropland expansion, deforestation, frontier dynamics, integrated assessment models, land use change, positive deviance analysis, sustainability

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 444170
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/444170
ISSN: 2590-3330
PURE UUID: f409b380-7c87-4d3e-ab12-2486390e8ee3
ORCID for Felix Eigenbrod: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-8982-824X
ORCID for Sebastian Lionel Dunnett: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-4238-2508
ORCID for Robert Holland: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3038-9227

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 30 Sep 2020 16:30
Last modified: 18 Feb 2021 17:19

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Felix Eigenbrod ORCID iD
Author: Michael Beckmann
Author: Sebastian Lionel Dunnett ORCID iD
Author: Laura Graham
Author: Robert Holland ORCID iD
Author: Patrick Meyfroidt
Author: Ralf Seppelt
Author: Xiao-Peng Song
Author: Rebecca Spake
Author: Tomáš Václavík
Author: Peter H. Verburg

University divisions

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×