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Modelling spatiotemporal dynamics of population, flooding and road travel for enhanced risk assessment: a case study of York, UK

Modelling spatiotemporal dynamics of population, flooding and road travel for enhanced risk assessment: a case study of York, UK
Modelling spatiotemporal dynamics of population, flooding and road travel for enhanced risk assessment: a case study of York, UK
The number of people travelling around an urban area varies greatly throughout the course of a day, week or year. As a result, the daily timing of a flood event, relative to these mobility patterns, is a critical factor in how a flood affects the local population. However, population mobility is seldom considered in flood risk assessments, meaning an important aspect of risk is missed. This thesis aims to investigate how daily variation in the travelling population, pluvial flood onset timing, and pluvial flood magnitude, interact to cause spatial and temporal variation in disruption to journey times and destination disruption across the urban area of York, UK. The population has been considered in subgroups, aligned to age and economic activity characteristics as these have been shown to have distinctive temporal characteristics. In each chapter, commuters and/or primary school children are the population groups selected as exemplars for analysis. This thesis comprises three analysis chapters. The first analysis chapter’s goal was to develop a framework for combining spatiotemporal population flow data with GIS network analysis, using journeys to primary schools as an example. The second analysis chapter examined how estimated flood-related commuter travel disruption was affected by different approaches to spatiotemporal population modelling. The third analysis chapter’s goal was to assess if the time of flood onset is more important than flood magnitude for disrupting commuter and school travel in York. Overall, this thesis has provided evidence that for sudden onset flooding scenarios, timing of flood onset is a greater determinant of hazard-related travel disruption than flood magnitude. The semidynamic framework could be applied to other urban areas to model the effects of pluvial flood events, as it works at the scale of a local authority, and to other types of hazard which disrupt travel like landslides, earthquakes and fallen trees.
University of Southampton
New, Kate Emily
2229099c-b5f7-4139-a84d-adb2ad38d1ef
New, Kate Emily
2229099c-b5f7-4139-a84d-adb2ad38d1ef
Wright, Jim
94990ecf-f8dd-4649-84f2-b28bf272e464
Smith, Alan D
63ec33c7-fa1d-41ae-a0e1-5a96b7140664

New, Kate Emily (2020) Modelling spatiotemporal dynamics of population, flooding and road travel for enhanced risk assessment: a case study of York, UK. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis, 281pp.

Record type: Thesis (Doctoral)

Abstract

The number of people travelling around an urban area varies greatly throughout the course of a day, week or year. As a result, the daily timing of a flood event, relative to these mobility patterns, is a critical factor in how a flood affects the local population. However, population mobility is seldom considered in flood risk assessments, meaning an important aspect of risk is missed. This thesis aims to investigate how daily variation in the travelling population, pluvial flood onset timing, and pluvial flood magnitude, interact to cause spatial and temporal variation in disruption to journey times and destination disruption across the urban area of York, UK. The population has been considered in subgroups, aligned to age and economic activity characteristics as these have been shown to have distinctive temporal characteristics. In each chapter, commuters and/or primary school children are the population groups selected as exemplars for analysis. This thesis comprises three analysis chapters. The first analysis chapter’s goal was to develop a framework for combining spatiotemporal population flow data with GIS network analysis, using journeys to primary schools as an example. The second analysis chapter examined how estimated flood-related commuter travel disruption was affected by different approaches to spatiotemporal population modelling. The third analysis chapter’s goal was to assess if the time of flood onset is more important than flood magnitude for disrupting commuter and school travel in York. Overall, this thesis has provided evidence that for sudden onset flooding scenarios, timing of flood onset is a greater determinant of hazard-related travel disruption than flood magnitude. The semidynamic framework could be applied to other urban areas to model the effects of pluvial flood events, as it works at the scale of a local authority, and to other types of hazard which disrupt travel like landslides, earthquakes and fallen trees.

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Modelling Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Population, Flooding and Road Travel for Enhanced Risk Assessment: A case study of York, UK
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Available under License University of Southampton Thesis Licence.

More information

Published date: August 2020

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 447823
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/447823
PURE UUID: b1b7313e-8c70-42ee-9159-a2cb2c82d2ee
ORCID for Jim Wright: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8842-2181

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 23 Mar 2021 17:38
Last modified: 24 Mar 2021 02:38

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Contributors

Author: Kate Emily New
Thesis advisor: Jim Wright ORCID iD
Thesis advisor: Alan D Smith

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