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Small Island Developing States (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: a system dynamics approach

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: a system dynamics approach
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: a system dynamics approach

The economy of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is highly dependent on tourism and travel sector. Under the impact of COVID-19, these islands have suffered strongly. Possible recovery strategies are tested through exploring the concept of risk perception as an important factor to influence the behaviour intention under the framework of theory of planned behaviour (TPB). A behavioural simulation is built to help evaluate tourism policies. This paper takes Maldives as an example. Four strategies are tested in the model: social distancing, tax reduction strategy, travel bubble strategy and joint strategy. The results show that the most effective way to change tourist behaviour intention is the travel bubble strategy. The results also indicate that the reduction in tourism arrivals may bring opportunities for local ecosystem recovery. This study exemplifies the advantage of using the system dynamics approach when the past pattern is not a good predictor for the future by making predictions based on how the system works.

Small Island Developing States, Tourism recovery strategy, risk perception, system dynamic, theory of planned behaviour
1368-3500
Gu, Yunfei
e1ee2290-874c-4c23-846d-90f7e2498764
Onggo, Bhakti Stephan
8e9a2ea5-140a-44c0-9c17-e9cf93662f80
Kunc, Martin H.
0b254052-f9f5-49f9-ac0b-148c257ba412
Bayer, Steffen
28979328-d6fa-4eb7-b6de-9ef97f8e8e97
Gu, Yunfei
e1ee2290-874c-4c23-846d-90f7e2498764
Onggo, Bhakti Stephan
8e9a2ea5-140a-44c0-9c17-e9cf93662f80
Kunc, Martin H.
0b254052-f9f5-49f9-ac0b-148c257ba412
Bayer, Steffen
28979328-d6fa-4eb7-b6de-9ef97f8e8e97

Gu, Yunfei, Onggo, Bhakti Stephan, Kunc, Martin H. and Bayer, Steffen (2021) Small Island Developing States (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: a system dynamics approach. Current Issues in Tourism. (doi:10.1080/13683500.2021.1924636).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The economy of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is highly dependent on tourism and travel sector. Under the impact of COVID-19, these islands have suffered strongly. Possible recovery strategies are tested through exploring the concept of risk perception as an important factor to influence the behaviour intention under the framework of theory of planned behaviour (TPB). A behavioural simulation is built to help evaluate tourism policies. This paper takes Maldives as an example. Four strategies are tested in the model: social distancing, tax reduction strategy, travel bubble strategy and joint strategy. The results show that the most effective way to change tourist behaviour intention is the travel bubble strategy. The results also indicate that the reduction in tourism arrivals may bring opportunities for local ecosystem recovery. This study exemplifies the advantage of using the system dynamics approach when the past pattern is not a good predictor for the future by making predictions based on how the system works.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 27 April 2021
Published date: 14 May 2021
Keywords: Small Island Developing States, Tourism recovery strategy, risk perception, system dynamic, theory of planned behaviour

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 449488
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/449488
ISSN: 1368-3500
PURE UUID: 7192c088-694b-44eb-b5c9-6cefddb567f2
ORCID for Bhakti Stephan Onggo: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5899-304X
ORCID for Martin H. Kunc: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3411-4052
ORCID for Steffen Bayer: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7872-467X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 03 Jun 2021 16:30
Last modified: 28 Apr 2022 02:26

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