Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States
Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019-2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011-2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%-87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%-87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%-80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019-2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.
3249
Feng, Luzhao
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Zhang, Ting
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Wang, Qing
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Xie, Yiran
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Peng, Zhibin
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Zheng, Jiandong
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Qin, Ying
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Zhang, Muli
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Lai, Shengjie
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Wang, Dayan
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Feng, Zijian
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Li, Zhongjie
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Gao, George F
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31 May 2021
Feng, Luzhao
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Zhang, Ting
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Wang, Qing
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Xie, Yiran
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Peng, Zhibin
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Zheng, Jiandong
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Qin, Ying
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Zhang, Muli
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Lai, Shengjie
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Wang, Dayan
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Feng, Zijian
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Li, Zhongjie
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Gao, George F
45097a33-ef07-4f93-8662-72d2563c09b2
Feng, Luzhao, Zhang, Ting, Wang, Qing, Xie, Yiran, Peng, Zhibin, Zheng, Jiandong, Qin, Ying, Zhang, Muli, Lai, Shengjie, Wang, Dayan, Feng, Zijian, Li, Zhongjie and Gao, George F
(2021)
Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States.
Nature Communications, 12 (1), , [3249].
(doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23440-1).
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019-2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011-2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%-87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%-87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%-80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019-2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.
Text
s41467-021-23440-1
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Submitted date: 6 July 2020
Accepted/In Press date: 28 April 2021
Published date: 31 May 2021
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
We thank staff members at the COVID-19 Emergency Response Strategy Team of China CDC. We would extend our thanks to Lance Rodewald for his comments and English language editing. We also thank the CDC and CAMS colleagues, Jiansheng Wang, Zhihang Peng, Xiaokun Yang, Peixi Dai, and Jin Yang, for their technical support. This study was supported by the following funding: National Science and Technology Major Project (2018ZX10713001-005 and 2016ZX10004222-009); National Natural Science Foundation of China (91846302 and 81773498); the China–US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases (6NU2GGH000961-05-02); Emergency Response Mechanism Operation Program (131031001000200001); Beijing Natural Science Foundation (7192136); the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1134076 and INV-024911); The Public Health System Construction Project, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (131031001000190045).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
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Local EPrints ID: 449701
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/449701
ISSN: 2041-1723
PURE UUID: ca858e48-75b1-4dc4-8194-d1746be8d2f7
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Date deposited: 11 Jun 2021 16:31
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:52
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Contributors
Author:
Luzhao Feng
Author:
Ting Zhang
Author:
Qing Wang
Author:
Yiran Xie
Author:
Zhibin Peng
Author:
Jiandong Zheng
Author:
Ying Qin
Author:
Muli Zhang
Author:
Dayan Wang
Author:
Zijian Feng
Author:
Zhongjie Li
Author:
George F Gao
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