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Childhood overweight and obesity at the start of primary school: external validation of pregnancy and early-life prediction models

Childhood overweight and obesity at the start of primary school: external validation of pregnancy and early-life prediction models
Childhood overweight and obesity at the start of primary school: external validation of pregnancy and early-life prediction models
Tackling the childhood obesity epidemic can potentially be facilitated by risk-stratifying families at an early-stage to receive prevention interventions and extra support. Using data from the Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort, this analysis aimed to externally validate prediction models for childhood overweight and obesity developed as part of the Studying Lifecourse Obesity PrEdictors (SLOPE) study in Hampshire. BiB is a longitudinal multi-ethnic birth cohort study which recruited women at around 28 weeks gestation between 2007 and 2010 in Bradford. The outcome was body mass index (BMI) ≥91st centile for overweight/obesity at 4-5 years. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed for each tenth of predicted risk by calculating the ratio of predicted to observed risk and plotting observed proportions versus predicted probabilities. Data were available for 8003 children. The AUC on external validation was comparable to that on development at all stages (early pregnancy, birth, ~1 year and ~2 years). The AUC on external validation ranged between 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62 to 0.66) at early pregnancy and 0.82 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.84) at ~2 years compared to 0.66 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.67) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.84) on model development in SLOPE. Calibration was better in the later model stages (early life ~1 year and ~2 years). The SLOPE models developed for predicting childhood overweight and obesity risk performed well on external validation in a UK birth cohort with a different geographical location and ethnic composition.
Ziauddeen, Nida
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Roderick, Paul
dbb3cd11-4c51-4844-982b-0eb30ad5085a
Santorelli, Gillian
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Wright, John
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Alwan, Nisreen
0d37b320-f325-4ed3-ba51-0fe2866d5382
Ziauddeen, Nida
8b233a4a-9763-410b-90c7-df5c7d1a26e4
Roderick, Paul
dbb3cd11-4c51-4844-982b-0eb30ad5085a
Santorelli, Gillian
c2c548fe-a51c-4aae-a054-5357d5242987
Wright, John
4b08b4df-41cc-4b51-980b-014d989af376
Alwan, Nisreen
0d37b320-f325-4ed3-ba51-0fe2866d5382

Ziauddeen, Nida, Roderick, Paul, Santorelli, Gillian, Wright, John and Alwan, Nisreen (2022) Childhood overweight and obesity at the start of primary school: external validation of pregnancy and early-life prediction models. PLOS Global Public Health. (doi:10.1371/journal.pgph.0000258). (In Press)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Tackling the childhood obesity epidemic can potentially be facilitated by risk-stratifying families at an early-stage to receive prevention interventions and extra support. Using data from the Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort, this analysis aimed to externally validate prediction models for childhood overweight and obesity developed as part of the Studying Lifecourse Obesity PrEdictors (SLOPE) study in Hampshire. BiB is a longitudinal multi-ethnic birth cohort study which recruited women at around 28 weeks gestation between 2007 and 2010 in Bradford. The outcome was body mass index (BMI) ≥91st centile for overweight/obesity at 4-5 years. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed for each tenth of predicted risk by calculating the ratio of predicted to observed risk and plotting observed proportions versus predicted probabilities. Data were available for 8003 children. The AUC on external validation was comparable to that on development at all stages (early pregnancy, birth, ~1 year and ~2 years). The AUC on external validation ranged between 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62 to 0.66) at early pregnancy and 0.82 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.84) at ~2 years compared to 0.66 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.67) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.84) on model development in SLOPE. Calibration was better in the later model stages (early life ~1 year and ~2 years). The SLOPE models developed for predicting childhood overweight and obesity risk performed well on external validation in a UK birth cohort with a different geographical location and ethnic composition.

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Accepted/In Press date: 9 March 2022

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 456017
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/456017
PURE UUID: cb01e965-2964-46bc-9ee9-d8e18569173e
ORCID for Nida Ziauddeen: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-5029
ORCID for Paul Roderick: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9475-6850
ORCID for Nisreen Alwan: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-4134-8463

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Date deposited: 12 Apr 2022 16:40
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:59

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Contributors

Author: Nida Ziauddeen ORCID iD
Author: Paul Roderick ORCID iD
Author: Gillian Santorelli
Author: John Wright
Author: Nisreen Alwan ORCID iD

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