A comparative economic assessment of urban transport infrastructure options in low- and middle-income countries

Abstract

The dominance of motorcycles in mixed transport systems in developing cities and countries might lead to several problems such as traffic congestion and accident. To solve these challenges and increase the modal share of public transport (PT), several new PT projects have been invested in these countries. However, there seems to be very little evidence on evaluation methods of all transport modes to analyse the feasibility of a new PT mode and identify the most cost-effective mixed transport system. Therefore, it is essential to have a comprehensive evaluation method for motorcycle, car, Demand Responsive Transit (DRT) and PT in mixed transport environments.
Hence, the main aim of this thesis is to develop a comparative economic assessment for evaluating the feasibility of a new PT mode and choosing the best mixed transport system based on the PT technologies’ characteristics and the conditions of local transport networks. The comparative economic assessment is integrated from four models: Social Cost Model, Incremental Elasticity Analysis, Incremental Multinomial/Nested Logit Model and Microscopic Simulation Model. The Social Cost Model calculates the social costs of exclusive private transport (PRV), segregated PT, exclusive DRT and mixed transport at a strategic planning level. The Incremental Elasticity Analysis evaluates endogenous changes in total general demand of all transport modes by using the demand elasticity with respect to a composite cost (a logsum). The Incremental Multinomial/Nested Logit Model estimates the choices of passengers in favour of all transport modes with respect to generalised costs. The Microscopic Simulation Model simulates all existing transport modes’ flows on the local network by using a microscopic simulation model in VISSIM, which is developed, calibrated and validated based on the data collected from one real urban corridor in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam.
The comparative economic assessment was applied to compare the existing mixed transport situation and twelve transport infrastructure options with a new PT technology (Bus Rapid Transit, elevated Metro or Monorail) replacing the existing bus services; either wholly or partially, and with or without a congestion charge scheme for PRV on the chosen corridor in Hanoi, in terms of average social cost, total general demand and PT share. The results show that eight options with Bus Rapid Transit or Monorail or Metro are feasible. In addition, the BRT option that replaces all existing buses with a congestion charging scheme is the best alternative in terms of average social cost. Transport planners and decision makers in Hanoi can draw on the findings of this thesis. Moreover, the methodology of the comparative economic assessment might be applied and modified to various transport networks with an abundance of motorcycles to assess the costs and benefits of each new PT technology and mixed transport systems with or without the congestion charge. However, various limitations are identified and further work is suggested.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Tam, Minh Vu: orcid.org/0000-0003-1708-1647

ORCID for Jonathan Preston: orcid.org/0000-0002-6866-049X

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