Projected increases in precipitation are expected to reduce nitrogen use efficiency and alter optimal fertilisation timings in agriculture
Projected increases in precipitation are expected to reduce nitrogen use efficiency and alter optimal fertilisation timings in agriculture
Nitrogen fertilization is vital for productive agriculture and efficient land use. However, globally, approximately 50% of the nitrogen applied is lost to the environment, causing inefficiencies, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Rainfall and its effect on soil moisture are the major components controlling nitrogen losses in agriculture. Thus, changing rainfall patterns could accelerate nitrogen inefficiencies. We used a mechanistic modeling platform to determine how precipitation-optimal nitrogen fertilization timings and resulting crop nitrogen uptake have changed historically (1950–2020) and how they are predicted to change under the RCP8.5 climate scenario (2021–2069) in the South East of England. We found that historically, neither precipitation-optimal fertilization timings nor resulting plant uptake changed significantly. However, there were large year-to-year variations in both. In the 2030s, where it is projected to get wetter, precipitation-optimal fertilization timings are predicted to be later in the season and the resulting plant uptake noticeably lower. After 2040, the precipitation-optimal uptakes are projected to increase with earlier precipitation-optimal timings closer to historical values, corresponding to the projected mean daily rainfall rates decreasing to the historical values in these growing seasons. It seems that the interannual variation in precipitation-optimal uptake is projected to increase. Ultimately, projected changes in precipitation patterns will affect nitrogen uptake and precipitation-optimal fertilization timings. We argue that the use of bespoke fertilization timings in each year can help recuperate the reduced N uptake due to changing precipitation.
agriculture, climate change, modeling, nitrogen use efficiency, precipitation
1414-1424
Mckay Fletcher, Daniel
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Ruiz, Siul Aljadi
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Williams, Katherine
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Petroselli, Chiara
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Walker, N.
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Chadwick, D.
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Jones, D. L.
aa75a0d9-20c3-4c0e-a986-10bb4185321d
Roose, Tiina
3581ab5b-71e1-4897-8d88-59f13f3bccfe
12 August 2022
Mckay Fletcher, Daniel
db06e7e0-69af-4fa2-89b3-26f6599e43d4
Ruiz, Siul Aljadi
d79b3b82-7c0d-47cc-9616-11d29e6a41bd
Williams, Katherine
bf87a040-9a95-4c4e-a078-d289404b7523
Petroselli, Chiara
19266726-2dc0-4790-af77-7ccdc45865eb
Walker, N.
09eb6162-d2d8-4ce5-9334-26c39966bb04
Chadwick, D.
0d8261cf-be5f-44cc-8afb-baa7fe4def3c
Jones, D. L.
aa75a0d9-20c3-4c0e-a986-10bb4185321d
Roose, Tiina
3581ab5b-71e1-4897-8d88-59f13f3bccfe
Mckay Fletcher, Daniel, Ruiz, Siul Aljadi, Williams, Katherine, Petroselli, Chiara, Walker, N., Chadwick, D., Jones, D. L. and Roose, Tiina
(2022)
Projected increases in precipitation are expected to reduce nitrogen use efficiency and alter optimal fertilisation timings in agriculture.
ACS ES&T Engineering, 2 (8), .
(doi:10.1021/acsestengg.1c00492).
Abstract
Nitrogen fertilization is vital for productive agriculture and efficient land use. However, globally, approximately 50% of the nitrogen applied is lost to the environment, causing inefficiencies, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Rainfall and its effect on soil moisture are the major components controlling nitrogen losses in agriculture. Thus, changing rainfall patterns could accelerate nitrogen inefficiencies. We used a mechanistic modeling platform to determine how precipitation-optimal nitrogen fertilization timings and resulting crop nitrogen uptake have changed historically (1950–2020) and how they are predicted to change under the RCP8.5 climate scenario (2021–2069) in the South East of England. We found that historically, neither precipitation-optimal fertilization timings nor resulting plant uptake changed significantly. However, there were large year-to-year variations in both. In the 2030s, where it is projected to get wetter, precipitation-optimal fertilization timings are predicted to be later in the season and the resulting plant uptake noticeably lower. After 2040, the precipitation-optimal uptakes are projected to increase with earlier precipitation-optimal timings closer to historical values, corresponding to the projected mean daily rainfall rates decreasing to the historical values in these growing seasons. It seems that the interannual variation in precipitation-optimal uptake is projected to increase. Ultimately, projected changes in precipitation patterns will affect nitrogen uptake and precipitation-optimal fertilization timings. We argue that the use of bespoke fertilization timings in each year can help recuperate the reduced N uptake due to changing precipitation.
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Accepted/In Press date: 25 May 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 9 June 2022
Published date: 12 August 2022
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
D.M.F., S.R., and T.R. are funded by BBSRC SARIC BB/P004180/1. T.R. is also funded by ERC Consolidator grant 646809 (Data Intensive Modelling of the Rhizosphere Processes), BBSRC SARISA BB/L025620/1. D.L.J. and D.R.C. are supported by BBSRC SARIC BB/P004539/1 and the UK-China Virtual Joint Centre for Agricultural Nitrogen (CINAg, BB/N013468/1), which is jointly supported by the Newton Fund, via UK BBSRC and NERC, and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology. C.P. and K.W. are funded by European Research Council Consolidator grant 646809 (Data Intensive Modelling of the Rhizosphere Processes). The authors acknowledge the use of the IRIDIS High Performance Computing Facility and associated support services at the University of Southampton, in the completion of this work.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society.
Keywords:
agriculture, climate change, modeling, nitrogen use efficiency, precipitation
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 458247
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/458247
ISSN: 2690-0645
PURE UUID: 56e0d7b3-b7d8-4af5-a35c-2c75930afa26
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Date deposited: 04 Jul 2022 16:40
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 07:22
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Contributors
Author:
Daniel Mckay Fletcher
Author:
Katherine Williams
Author:
Chiara Petroselli
Author:
N. Walker
Author:
D. Chadwick
Author:
D. L. Jones
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