The evolution of Japan's security policy towards nuclear weapons 1945-1998

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is twofold. First, it seeks to analyse certain aspects associated with the theory of Neo-realism, particularly as applied to arguments concerning nuclear weapons acquisition. Neo-realism places an emphasis on material factors in explaining state behaviour and international outcomes. As a theory, it also suggests that a state's external environment is a significant causal influence on its behaviour and that any changes in that environment will consequently have an impact on the policies it pursues. Contrary to this theoretical approach, those analysts emphasising the importance of strategic culture have suggested that neo-realism is an inadequate guide to state behaviour and what is required instead is a causal account which postulates the linkages between a state's culture and its behaviour. In the context of Japan, some neo-realist explanations have argued that while Japan may have remained a non-nuclear weapons state during the Cold War this will change now that the international environment has altered radically. Those emphasising strategic culture, however, have argued that Japan has remained non-nuclear due to its 'anti-military and anti-nuclear' culture. Their emphasis on the sociological aspects of Japan's national security consequently highlights factors that the rationalist neo-realist account cannot explain. In addressing these issues, this thesis suggests when and how the strategic culture approach can supplement the neo-realist account in terms of explaining the evolution of Japan's security policy towards nuclear weapons.

Second, on an empirical level, the thesis seeks to analyse why, despite Japan's potential to develop nuclear weapons and the volatile regional situation in Northeast Asia, Japan has maintained its security policy towards nuclear weapons, even in the changed international circumstances following the end of the Cold War. In addressing this objective, the following factors are analysed: 1) the importance of certain domestic considerations, such as Japan's 'anti-nuclear' sentiment, and the conflicting views on the US extended deterrence towards Japan, which range from those viewing it as 'essential' to those who argue it is 'detrimental'; 2) the US-Japanese security relationship as the most fundamental factor in the evolution of Japan's security policy towards nuclear weapons (especially in the context of the link between a) Japan's perception of the credibility of the US extended deterrence towards Japan and b) Japan's response to regional nuclear weapons states); and 3) the costs and benefits of Japan's nuclearisation.

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