The effects of information on the formation of migration routes and the dynamics of migration
The effects of information on the formation of migration routes and the dynamics of migration
Most models of migration simply assume that migrants somehow make their way from their point of origin to their chosen destination. We know, however, that - especially in the case of asylum migration - the migrant journey often is a hazardous, difficult process where migrants make decisions based on limited information and under severe material constraints. Here we investigate the dynamics of the migration journey itself using a spatially explicit, agent-based model. In particular we are interested in the effects of limited information and information exchange. We find that under limited information, migration routes generally become suboptimal, their stochasticity increases and migrants arrive much less frequently at their preferred destination. Under specific circumstances
self-organised consensus routes emerge that are largely unpredictable. Limited information also strongly reduces the migrants’ ability to react to changes in circumstances. We conclude, first, that information and information exchange is likely to have considerable effects on all aspects of migration and should thus
be included in future modelling efforts, and second, that there are many
questions in theoretical migration research that are likely to profit from
the use of agent-based modelling techniques.
agent-based modelling, beliefs, communication, migration, migration routes, Agent-based modelling, Beliefs, Migration, Communication, Migration routes
3-20
Hinsch, Martin
660b9bb4-148f-4692-9014-8db1d751ae57
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
2 January 2023
Hinsch, Martin
660b9bb4-148f-4692-9014-8db1d751ae57
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Hinsch, Martin and Bijak, Jakub
(2023)
The effects of information on the formation of migration routes and the dynamics of migration.
Artificial Life, 29 (1), .
(doi:10.1162/artl_a_00388).
Abstract
Most models of migration simply assume that migrants somehow make their way from their point of origin to their chosen destination. We know, however, that - especially in the case of asylum migration - the migrant journey often is a hazardous, difficult process where migrants make decisions based on limited information and under severe material constraints. Here we investigate the dynamics of the migration journey itself using a spatially explicit, agent-based model. In particular we are interested in the effects of limited information and information exchange. We find that under limited information, migration routes generally become suboptimal, their stochasticity increases and migrants arrive much less frequently at their preferred destination. Under specific circumstances
self-organised consensus routes emerge that are largely unpredictable. Limited information also strongly reduces the migrants’ ability to react to changes in circumstances. We conclude, first, that information and information exchange is likely to have considerable effects on all aspects of migration and should thus
be included in future modelling efforts, and second, that there are many
questions in theoretical migration research that are likely to profit from
the use of agent-based modelling techniques.
Text
ALIFE_Hinsch_Bijak_2022_authors_accepted
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 27 June 2022
e-pub ahead of print date: 2 January 2023
Published date: 2 January 2023
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme; European Research Council grant No. 725232 BAPS: Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies (MH and JB). This article reflects the authors’ views, and the Research Executive Agency of the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped improve an earlier draft of the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Keywords:
agent-based modelling, beliefs, communication, migration, migration routes, Agent-based modelling, Beliefs, Migration, Communication, Migration routes
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 467474
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/467474
ISSN: 1530-9185
PURE UUID: c4109cea-7e98-474a-8cd7-d7eca6f3eafc
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 11 Jul 2022 16:33
Last modified: 17 Mar 2024 03:52
Export record
Altmetrics
Contributors
Author:
Martin Hinsch
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.
View more statistics