Modeling COVID-19 contact-tracing using the ratio regression capture–recapture approach

Böhning, Dankmar, Lerdsuwansri, Rattana and Sangnawakij, Patarawan (2023) Modeling COVID-19 contact-tracing using the ratio regression capture–recapture approach. Biometrics, 79 (4), 3818-3830. (doi:10.1111/biom.13842).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Contact-tracing is one of the most effective tools in infectious disease outbreak
control. A capture–recapture approach based upon ratio regression is suggested
to estimate the completeness of case detection. Ratio regression has been recently
developed as flexible tool for count data modeling and has proved to be successful
in the capture–recapture setting. The methodology is applied here to Covid-19
contact tracing data from Thailand. A simple weighted straight line approach is
used which includes the Poisson and geometric distribution as special cases. For
the case study data of contact tracing for Thailand, a completeness of 83% could
be found with a 95% confidence interval of 74%–93%.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 9 February 2023

e-pub ahead of print date: 16 February 2023

Published date: December 2023

Additional Information: Funding Information: All authors are grateful to the Ministry of Public Health Thailand (MoPHT) for providing access to the Covid‐19 contact tracing data. Thanks go to James Gallagher (Director of Statistical Services Centre Reading) for a critical reading of the manuscript. All authors are grateful to the Editor, an Associate Editor, and two Referees for their helpful comments. The first author is deeply grateful for receiving funding from Thammasat University (Thailand) to undertake this research. This study was supported by Bualuang ASEAN Chair Professor Fund, Agreement Number TUBC 02/2022. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Biometric Society.

Keywords: contact tracing, count distribution modeling, Covid-19 transmission in Thailand, ratio regression, zero-truncation

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