The impact of urbanization and human mobility on seasonal influenza in Northern China

Abstract

The intensity of influenza epidemics varies significantly from year to year among regions with similar climatic conditions and populations. However, the underlying mechanisms of the temporal and spatial variations remain unclear. We investigated the impact of urbanization and public transportation size on influenza activity. We used 6-year weekly provincial-level surveillance data of influenza-like disease incidence (ILI) and viral activity in northern China. We derived the transmission potential of influenza for each epidemic season using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed-susceptible (SEIRS) model and estimated the transmissibility in the peak period via the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt). Public transport was found to explain approximately 28% of the variance in the seasonal transmission potential. Urbanization and public transportation size explained approximately 10% and 21% of the variance in maximum Rt in the peak period, respectively. For the mean Rt during the peak period, urbanization and public transportation accounted for 9% and 16% of the variance in Rt, respectively. Our results indicated that the differences in the intensity of influenza epidemics among the northern provinces of China were partially driven by urbanization and public transport size. These findings are beneficial for predicting influenza intensity and developing preparedness strategies for the early stages of epidemics.

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