Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants
Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants
Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction number. We found that, overall, social distancing measures (38% reduction, 95% prediction interval 31-45%), face masks (30%, 17-42%) and close contact tracing (28%, 24-31%) were most effective. Contact tracing was crucial in containing outbreaks during the initial phases, while social distancing measures became increasingly prominent as the spread persisted. In addition, infections with higher transmissibility and a shorter latent period posed more challenges for these measures. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the effects of public-health measures for zeroing out emerging contagions in different contexts.
Humans, Public Health, SARS-CoV-2/genetics, COVID-19/epidemiology, Pandemics/prevention & control
Ge, Yong
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Wu, Xilin
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Zhang, Wenbin
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Wang, Xiaoli
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Zhang, Die
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Wang, Jianghao
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Liu, Haiyan
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Ren, Zhoupeng
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Ruktanonchai, Nick W.
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Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.
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Cleary, Eimear
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Yao, Yongcheng
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Wesolowski, Amy
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Cummings, Derek A.T.
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Li, Zhongjie
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Lai, Shengjie
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29 August 2023
Ge, Yong
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Wu, Xilin
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Zhang, Wenbin
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Wang, Xiaoli
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Zhang, Die
1200c81b-1f77-4f10-83ce-c857b40a6a5b
Wang, Jianghao
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Liu, Haiyan
aeca8fb6-ed13-471e-96ec-a33757a3b2e8
Ren, Zhoupeng
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Ruktanonchai, Nick W.
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Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.
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Cleary, Eimear
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Yao, Yongcheng
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Wesolowski, Amy
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Cummings, Derek A.T.
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Li, Zhongjie
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Lai, Shengjie
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Ge, Yong, Wu, Xilin, Zhang, Wenbin, Wang, Xiaoli, Zhang, Die, Wang, Jianghao, Liu, Haiyan, Ren, Zhoupeng, Ruktanonchai, Nick W., Ruktanonchai, Corrine W., Cleary, Eimear, Yao, Yongcheng, Wesolowski, Amy, Cummings, Derek A.T., Li, Zhongjie, Tatem, Andrew J. and Lai, Shengjie
(2023)
Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Nature Communications, 14 (1), [5270].
(doi:10.1038/s41467-023-40940-4).
Abstract
Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction number. We found that, overall, social distancing measures (38% reduction, 95% prediction interval 31-45%), face masks (30%, 17-42%) and close contact tracing (28%, 24-31%) were most effective. Contact tracing was crucial in containing outbreaks during the initial phases, while social distancing measures became increasingly prominent as the spread persisted. In addition, infections with higher transmissibility and a shorter latent period posed more challenges for these measures. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the effects of public-health measures for zeroing out emerging contagions in different contexts.
Text
s41467-023-40940-4
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Submitted date: 28 March 2023
Accepted/In Press date: 15 August 2023
Published date: 29 August 2023
Additional Information:
Funding Information:
We thank the researchers and organizations who generated and publicly shared the mobility, epidemiological, intervention, and analyzing code used in this research. This study was supported by the National Institute for Health (MIDAS Mobility R01AI160780), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-024911), the National Nature Science Foundation of China (42230110, 72025405, 91846301, 72088101, 42222110), and the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (7202073). The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. The corresponding authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent any official policy.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, Springer Nature Limited.
Keywords:
Humans, Public Health, SARS-CoV-2/genetics, COVID-19/epidemiology, Pandemics/prevention & control
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Local EPrints ID: 482197
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/482197
ISSN: 2041-1723
PURE UUID: 25fe2111-d276-4fee-b500-53208601e024
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Date deposited: 21 Sep 2023 16:32
Last modified: 18 Mar 2024 04:14
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Contributors
Author:
Yong Ge
Author:
Xilin Wu
Author:
Wenbin Zhang
Author:
Xiaoli Wang
Author:
Die Zhang
Author:
Jianghao Wang
Author:
Haiyan Liu
Author:
Zhoupeng Ren
Author:
Nick W. Ruktanonchai
Author:
Corrine W. Ruktanonchai
Author:
Eimear Cleary
Author:
Yongcheng Yao
Author:
Amy Wesolowski
Author:
Derek A.T. Cummings
Author:
Zhongjie Li
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