Role of car segment and fuel type in the choice of alternative fuel vehicles: a cross-nested logit model for the English market
Role of car segment and fuel type in the choice of alternative fuel vehicles: a cross-nested logit model for the English market
In this article, we study the role of car segment and fuel type in the choice of alternative fuel vehicles and in the prediction of its market. For this purpose, we propose a joint choice cross-nested logit model to understand the demand for alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) and to study substitutional patterns between fuel types and vehicle segments with a full revealed preference approach, using only publicly available real data at disaggregate (household) level in England. Our results show that, as hypothesised, fuel type choice is not independent from car segment choice. The correlation patterns in the chosen specification reveal that individual car alternatives belonging to the same car segment are strongly correlated, while a weaker correlation exists between alternatives from different segments which share the same fuel type. The results suggest that creating awareness for cleaner fuel alternatives might be more effective if a targeted approach that considers these substitutional patterns is used. From a policy standpoint, while purchase prices play an important role and government policies have been concentrated in reducing the gap between ICE vehicles and AFVs in this dimension, our models stress the relevance of the operating cost variable, suggesting that its effect might also be crucial in the purchase decision.
Car segment choice, Cross-nested logit, Discrete choice models, Electric vehicles, Fuel type choice, Hybrid electric vehicles, Revealed preferences
Domarchi, Cristian
12770dd9-ec99-4d57-acfc-4ca745b63f07
Cherchi, Elisabetta
0d564532-eaaf-459d-a2eb-7cdc76737f5b
18 December 2023
Domarchi, Cristian
12770dd9-ec99-4d57-acfc-4ca745b63f07
Cherchi, Elisabetta
0d564532-eaaf-459d-a2eb-7cdc76737f5b
Domarchi, Cristian and Cherchi, Elisabetta
(2023)
Role of car segment and fuel type in the choice of alternative fuel vehicles: a cross-nested logit model for the English market.
Applied Energy, 357, [122451].
(doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122451).
Abstract
In this article, we study the role of car segment and fuel type in the choice of alternative fuel vehicles and in the prediction of its market. For this purpose, we propose a joint choice cross-nested logit model to understand the demand for alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) and to study substitutional patterns between fuel types and vehicle segments with a full revealed preference approach, using only publicly available real data at disaggregate (household) level in England. Our results show that, as hypothesised, fuel type choice is not independent from car segment choice. The correlation patterns in the chosen specification reveal that individual car alternatives belonging to the same car segment are strongly correlated, while a weaker correlation exists between alternatives from different segments which share the same fuel type. The results suggest that creating awareness for cleaner fuel alternatives might be more effective if a targeted approach that considers these substitutional patterns is used. From a policy standpoint, while purchase prices play an important role and government policies have been concentrated in reducing the gap between ICE vehicles and AFVs in this dimension, our models stress the relevance of the operating cost variable, suggesting that its effect might also be crucial in the purchase decision.
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 30 November 2023
e-pub ahead of print date: 18 December 2023
Published date: 18 December 2023
Additional Information:
Funding Information: this work was supported by the Leverhulme Doctoral Scholarship in Behaviour Informatics ( DS-2017-015 ) and by the Newcastle University Overseas Research Scholarship (NUORS). We would like to thank the editors and reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions, which helped us to improve the paper. All remaining errors are our responsibility.
Keywords:
Car segment choice, Cross-nested logit, Discrete choice models, Electric vehicles, Fuel type choice, Hybrid electric vehicles, Revealed preferences
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 487102
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/487102
ISSN: 0306-2619
PURE UUID: bb598562-e167-4f7b-b510-832d3ed71052
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Date deposited: 13 Feb 2024 17:33
Last modified: 10 Apr 2024 02:15
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Author:
Cristian Domarchi
Author:
Elisabetta Cherchi
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