Multimorbidity and risk of adverse outcomes in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study: does sex matter?

Abstract

Aims: we examined whether admission risk increases at a certain threshold of number of systems medicated or whether any increase confers greater admission risk in either sex in a community-dwelling cohort of older persons in Hertfordshire. This study uses a longitudinal retrospective study design.

Methods: data from 2997 men and women (aged 59–73 at baseline) were analyzed. Participants were followed up from baseline (1998–2004) until December 2018 using Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data, reporting clinical outcomes using ICD-10 coding. Number of systems medicated in relation to mortality (all-cause, cancer-related, cardiovascular-related) and admission (any, neurological, cardiovascular, and respiratory) were examined using Cox regression.

Results: apart from cancer-related mortality among women, more systems medicated predicted increased risk of all events among both sexes (p ≤ 0.001). For ‘any’, cardiovascular and respiratory admissions, there were increases in risk for each category of number of systems medicated. For example, compared to men with no systems medicated, those with 1, 2 and > 2 systems medicated had hazard ratios (95% CI) for cardiovascular admissions of 1.82 (1.57,2.12), 2.39 (2.00,2.84) and 3.45 (2.84,4.20) respectively; estimates among women were 1.74 (1.44,2.11), 2.35 (1.92,2.88) and 3.40 (2.79,4.13).

Conclusions: increases in numbers of systems medicated conferred greater risk of admission in both sexes. Interventions aimed at reducing the burden of chronic disease in mid-late adulthood are required.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Kate A. Ward: orcid.org/0000-0001-7034-6750

ORCID for Cyrus Cooper: orcid.org/0000-0003-3510-0709

ORCID for Elaine M. Dennison: orcid.org/0000-0002-3048-4961

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