Can cryptocurrency or gold rescue BRICS stocks amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Abstract

This study examines whether cryptocurrency markets offer more resilient safe haven properties than gold for stock markets in the BRICS economies from 28th April 2013 to 27th September 2024. Unlike traditional studies that primarily focus on Bitcoin or top-market cap cryptocurrencies, we introduce a novel Crypto index that includes 9468 active and defunct cryptocurrencies, providing a comprehensive view of daily market fluctuations across all listed crypto assets. We also investigate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict on the safe haven status of these assets. Using a time-varying robust Granger causality framework, we analyse the dynamic relationships between potential safe haven assets and BRICS stocks. Additionally, we explore the network structure of gold, cryptocurrencies, and BRICS stocks across different quantiles. Our results show limited evidence of time-invariant causality, but strong evidence of time-varying causality, suggesting that neither gold nor cryptocurrencies act as safe havens for BRICS stocks over the entire sample period. We find increased market interconnectedness during extreme conditions, with gold and cryptocurrencies initially acting as net receivers of shocks, but gold shifting to a net transmitter during the conflict, indicating stronger safe haven properties for gold. Portfolios favour gold over crypto, and small-cap cryptocurrencies are cheaper but less efficient hedges compared to large-cap cryptos, with Bitcoin emerging as the optimal investment for returns. These findings offer valuable insights for investors and policymakers, particularly for optimizing portfolio management and supporting financial stability during market turbulence.

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ORCID for Martin Enilov: orcid.org/0000-0002-7671-6975

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