Sampling effort and its allocation in the Lincoln-Petersen experiment: a hierarchical approach
Sampling effort and its allocation in the Lincoln-Petersen experiment: a hierarchical approach
Capture-recapture methods are widely used for estimating population sizes in ecological and epidemiological studies, yet the optimal allocation of sampling effort often remains underexplored. This study explores sampling efforts in a hierarchical framework that subdivides each capture occasion in a Lincoln–Petersen experiment into multiple sub-occasions, allowing for flexible resource allocation. When detection probabilities are equal across occasions, an even split minimizes variance; when probabilities differ, maximizing the joint detection probability is essential. A pseudo-Bayesian approach is also proposed to address scenarios with unknown catchabilities. Detailed simulation studies validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate the framework's robustness. The resulting guidelines offer practical insights for designing more efficient capture-recapture experiments and improving population size estimates.
Capture-recapture, Lincoln–Petersen estimator, Population size, Sampling effort, Variance estimation
Chin, Su Na
c55163ba-6ad6-42f5-ad6d-b784c664c716
Overstall, Antony
c1d6c8bd-1c5f-49ee-a845-ec9ec7b20910
Böhning, Dankmar
1df635d4-e3dc-44d0-b61d-5fd11f6434e1
7 August 2025
Chin, Su Na
c55163ba-6ad6-42f5-ad6d-b784c664c716
Overstall, Antony
c1d6c8bd-1c5f-49ee-a845-ec9ec7b20910
Böhning, Dankmar
1df635d4-e3dc-44d0-b61d-5fd11f6434e1
Chin, Su Na, Overstall, Antony and Böhning, Dankmar
(2025)
Sampling effort and its allocation in the Lincoln-Petersen experiment: a hierarchical approach.
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 241, [106330].
(doi:10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106330).
Abstract
Capture-recapture methods are widely used for estimating population sizes in ecological and epidemiological studies, yet the optimal allocation of sampling effort often remains underexplored. This study explores sampling efforts in a hierarchical framework that subdivides each capture occasion in a Lincoln–Petersen experiment into multiple sub-occasions, allowing for flexible resource allocation. When detection probabilities are equal across occasions, an even split minimizes variance; when probabilities differ, maximizing the joint detection probability is essential. A pseudo-Bayesian approach is also proposed to address scenarios with unknown catchabilities. Detailed simulation studies validate the theoretical findings and demonstrate the framework's robustness. The resulting guidelines offer practical insights for designing more efficient capture-recapture experiments and improving population size estimates.
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Accepted/In Press date: 24 July 2025
e-pub ahead of print date: 5 August 2025
Published date: 7 August 2025
Keywords:
Capture-recapture, Lincoln–Petersen estimator, Population size, Sampling effort, Variance estimation
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 504678
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/504678
ISSN: 0378-3758
PURE UUID: d3fcb6b7-376b-40b1-a811-42bdb9ae2f90
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Date deposited: 17 Sep 2025 16:52
Last modified: 18 Sep 2025 02:05
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Author:
Su Na Chin
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