Manfren, Massimiliano, James, Patrick, Chater, Michael, Jackson, Colin, Aragon, Victoria, Azadeh, Montazami, Gauthier, Stephanie, Teli, Despoina, Quinn, Beverley, Kalsi, Karam, Hough, Samuel, Thomas, Carys, Partington, James and Jarrett, Jay (2026) A multi-dimensional approach to thermal resilience for UK schools: quantifying cognitive, comfort and heat strain impacts due to overheating. Energy and Buildings, 358, [117164]. (doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117164).
Abstract
Overheating in school buildings poses a significant threat to pupils’ learning attainment, comfort and health, a risk expected to intensify with climate change. This study conducted a regional, building stock-scale assessment for Hampshire, United Kingdom, encompassing over 500 maintained schools and nearly 9,000 classrooms. Representative schools (10 buildings, 60 classrooms) were selected from a high-resolution inventory and monitored from 2022 to 2023. Six heatwave events were recorded during monitoring, including record temperatures in 2022. Overheating risk was quantified in the buildings using three metrics: cognitive performance, adaptive comfort based on BB101 guidelines and heat strain based on Gagge’s model. The risk criteria were then incorporated into an interpretable data-driven workflow using classroom data, building stock inventory data, and climate projections. This method is used to estimate classroom-level overheating risk and thermal resilience across Hampshire schools. A medium-to-high impact on cognitive function is projected in 66% of classrooms at present, rising to 92% (the large majority of classrooms without air conditioning) by 2050 without targeted interventions. By 2050, heat strain is expected to increase from 6% to 10% of classrooms and BB101 thermal comfort limits exceedance from 50% to 76%. Overheating risk is highest in lightweight, single-sided naturally ventilated classrooms like SCOLA with high glazing ratios and limited solar control. The transferable workflow developed can bridge strategic school-estate planning for local authorities and national overheating risk mitigation and adaptation policy.
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