Prudence in project handover: a multi-method exploration of risk readiness capability interdependence in predicting successful handover of major infrastructure projects

Abstract

Drawing on a nuanced perspective of prudence theory, we examine the interdependence among risk readiness capability factors in predicting the successful handover of major infrastructure projects We first apply ISM–MICMAC analysis to identify key risk readiness sub-factors explaining handover failures. Next, Structural equation modelling is employed to explore the underlying structure of the interdependencies of these risk readiness sub-factors reframed within temporal dimensions of ‘foresight’and ‘oversight’. The analysis shows marked differences in comparative factor importance, with ‘foresight’ showing strong dominance over ‘oversight’. Finally, using Artificial Neural Networks, we test the predictive validity of the identified readiness structure by assessing its ability to predict successful handover, measured in terms of ‘timeliness’ and ‘functionality’. Results show that while both ‘foresight’ and ‘oversight’ predict handover success, ‘foresight’ emerged as the stronger predictor. The study’s originality lies in integrating prudence theory and risk readiness literature to theorise the frameworks guiding project-to-operations handover.

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