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Predictability of bitcoin returns

Predictability of bitcoin returns
Predictability of bitcoin returns
This paper comprehensively examines the performance of a host of popular variables to predict Bitcoin returns. We show that time-series momentum, economic policy uncertainty, and financial uncertainty outperform other predictors in all in-sample, out-of-sample, and asset allocation tests. Bitcoin returns have no exposure to common stock and bond market factors but rather are affected by Bitcoin-specific and external uncertainty factors.
Bitcoin, certainty equivalent return, forecasting, return predictability, time-series momentum
1351-847X
66-85
Cheah, Jeremy
298800de-521f-4aa8-9c04-2f58eece4c6e
Luo, Di
cc1b0fa7-f630-45dc-ab05-495f9023148f
Zhang, Zhuang
df7b9fa8-04fd-4085-b74d-c9c1506b974e
Sung, Ming-Chien
2114f823-bc7f-4306-a775-67aee413aa03
Cheah, Jeremy
298800de-521f-4aa8-9c04-2f58eece4c6e
Luo, Di
cc1b0fa7-f630-45dc-ab05-495f9023148f
Zhang, Zhuang
df7b9fa8-04fd-4085-b74d-c9c1506b974e
Sung, Ming-Chien
2114f823-bc7f-4306-a775-67aee413aa03

Cheah, Jeremy, Luo, Di, Zhang, Zhuang and Sung, Ming-Chien (2022) Predictability of bitcoin returns. European Journal of Finance, 28 (1), 66-85. (doi:10.1080/1351847X.2020.1835685).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper comprehensively examines the performance of a host of popular variables to predict Bitcoin returns. We show that time-series momentum, economic policy uncertainty, and financial uncertainty outperform other predictors in all in-sample, out-of-sample, and asset allocation tests. Bitcoin returns have no exposure to common stock and bond market factors but rather are affected by Bitcoin-specific and external uncertainty factors.

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Paper final 26th July endnote - Accepted Manuscript
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Table final 26th July - Accepted Manuscript
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More information

Submitted date: 9 June 2019
Accepted/In Press date: 6 October 2020
e-pub ahead of print date: 5 November 2020
Published date: 1 January 2022
Additional Information: Funding Information: We thank Chris Adcock (the Editor), two anonymous referees, Fergal Carton, Andrew Detzel, Gerhard Kling, Athanasios Sakkas, Chris Stanley, and Andrew Urquhart for their insightful comments and suggestions. We are also grateful for helpful comments and suggestions from conference participants at Financial Inclusion and Fintech SOAS University of London, 2019 and Cryptocurrency Research Conference, University of Southampton, 2019. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Copyright: Copyright 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Keywords: Bitcoin, certainty equivalent return, forecasting, return predictability, time-series momentum

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 444582
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/444582
ISSN: 1351-847X
PURE UUID: 79f23975-3c03-4532-8993-398f6989166b
ORCID for Jeremy Cheah: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2953-3815
ORCID for Di Luo: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-7405-6347
ORCID for Zhuang Zhang: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5369-3144
ORCID for Ming-Chien Sung: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2278-6185

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 26 Oct 2020 17:32
Last modified: 21 May 2022 04:01

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Contributors

Author: Jeremy Cheah ORCID iD
Author: Di Luo ORCID iD
Author: Zhuang Zhang ORCID iD
Author: Ming-Chien Sung ORCID iD

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