The global burden of diabetes-related chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2021, with predictions of incidence to 2036

Abstract

Aim: diabetes-related chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major cause of both CKD and end-stage renal disease. This study aimed to examine updated global trends in the burden of diabetes-related CKD from 1990 to 2021, stratified by location, age, and sex.

Methods: using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 dataset, we quantified the burden of CKD worldwide, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

Results: from 1990 to 2021, global surveillance revealed a persistent increase in the burden of diabetes-related CKD, with age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) rising significantly across socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Forecasted ASIR for type 2 diabetes-related CKD (T2D-CKD) shows a consistent pattern of escalation, whereas type 1 diabetes-related CKD (T1D-CKD) is expected to decrease from 2021 to 2036. Across all SDI quintiles, ASIR for diabetes-related CKD increased progressively, with high-SDI regions showing the highest rates. Moreover, the global DALY burden peaked in the 50-54 age group for T1D-CKD and in the 65-69 age group for T2D-CKD in the Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania super-region. Overall, the burden of diabetes-related CKD was higher in males, while the prevalence of T1D-CKD was higher in females.

Conclusion: the global burden of diabetes-related CKD increased substantially between 1990 and 2021 across diverse geographic regions. Target strategies are urgently needed to reduce the burden of diabetes-related CKD and address this growing public health challenge.

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ORCID for Chris Byrne: orcid.org/0000-0001-6322-7753

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